Prefabricated building constitutes the development trend of the construction industry in the future. However, many uncertainties in the construction process will surely lead to a higher cost. Therefore, it is necessary to study the cost risk evolution and transfer mechanism in the implementation process of this project. A dynamic evolution model for the cost risk of prefabricated buildings has been established in this paper. First of all, a matrix for cost risk of prefabricated buildings was established based on the WSR (Wuli-Shili-Renli) model, and all risk factors in the implementation stage were classified in accordance with the WSR principle. Second, a DBN-based dynamic evolution model was established based on the risk matrix, and the structure and node parameters of the Dynamic Bayesian Network were determined with the aid of the K2 structure learning algorithm and parameter learning method. In view of the probability change process of risks over time, the dynamic evolution path of risks was predicted in different cases through causal reasoning and diagnostic reasoning. Eventually, the model was applied into construction projects. The research results show that: because prefabricated components need to be made by prefabricated component factories, the management systems of prefabricated component factories are usually not perfect, and the probability of management risks is higher. The occurrence of management risks not only has an impact on other risks at the current time node, but also causes other risks to occur in the subsequent transportation and construction phases at the next moment, which eventually leads to the occurrence of risk events.
With prefabricated construction method deemed as an effective way to improve the environmental performance and sustainable development of the building industry, it is inevitably adopted in the scaled residence in the process of residential industrialization. However, the development of prefabricated residential buildings is still immature under the current market economy system, because the stakeholders involved in the process are not yet able to form a good cooperation mechanism and they are more inclined to keep their own interests. As a result, the market share of prefabricated residential buildings is relatively low. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct research on the stakeholders involved. By analyzing their costs and benefits, the reasons that really impede the population of prefabricated residential buildings can be found. In this paper, incremental cost allocation coefficient is introduced, the incremental cost difference under different assembly rates is considered, and the allocation ratio of the incremental cost input of the prefabricated building is analyzed based on game theory. The evolutionary game theory for government and real estate companies is established under the condition of bounded rationality with consumer participation. Then the effectiveness of the game theory is verified using empirical analysis, so as to provide reference for the authorities to promote the large-scale development of prefabricated residential buildings.
Prefabricated building is an objective requirement to achieve sustainable development of the construction industry. However, it should be noted that Chinese enterprises are characterized by an immature supply chain management mechanism, and weak environmental protection awareness and social responsibility awareness. Therefore, from the perspective of sustainable development, a performance evaluation system for a prefabricated building supply chain was established based on SEM (Structural Equation Model) and virtual frontier SBM–DEA (Slacks-Based Measure and Data Envelopment Analysis). Upon summarization of a great deal of literatures, the most influential 34 indexes were selected, after which the weight calculation and index screening were performed using SEM method. Second, the performance evaluation was conducted using the virtual SBM–DEA method. Horizontally, a comparison is made on the performance and total performance of the four sub-units (supply chain operation, economic benefit, environmental protection and social liabilities) in the supply chain; vertically, the dynamic changes of the supply chain in time dimension are assessed. After the evaluation system was applied into enterprises, research results show that factors affecting the performance of the corporate supply chain are ranked as: supply chain operation > economic benefits > environmental protection > social responsibility. At the same time, the performance of 14 supply chains was evaluated, in order to provide guidance for supply chain management in enterprises.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.