In most Chinese cities, electric bicycles and electrically assisted bicycles (e-bikes) have drastically increased in recent years and currently constitute the largest proportion of the nonmotorized traffic at signalized intersections. Proper treatment of e-bikes has become a vitally important issue in improving the operational efficiency and safety performance of signalized intersections. However, fundamental knowledge of the unique operating characteristics and behavior of riders of e-bikes under various conditions is insufficient. This study statistically analyzed critical behavioral parameters of e-bike riders and empirically modeled their start-up behavior at the green onset following a 3-s red-and-yellow signal and their stop–pass decision behavior at the yellow onset following a 3-s flashing green. Distribution types and parameters of desired speed, start-up time, acceleration rate, perception–reaction time, and deceleration rate were investigated with the use of highly accurate trajectory data. A temporal–spatial model was developed to interpret the start-up curve, and three binary logistic regression models were built to predict the stop–pass decisions for different rider groups. It was found that the start-up curve of e-bikes could be well described by a quadratic function and that the red-and-yellow signal significantly induced a hurried start. The potential time to the stop line at the decision point was found to be the dominant independent factor explaining the stop–pass decision of e-bike riders; the flashing green signal seemed to enlarge the option zone, bring the indecision zone earlier, and result in more aggressive passing behavior.
The primary objective of this study is to compare pedestrian evacuation strategies in the large-scale public space (LPS) using microscopic model. Data were collected by video recording from Tian-yi square for 36 hours in city of Ningbo, China. A pedestrian evacuation simulation model was developed based on the social force model (SFM). The simulation model parameters, such as reaction time, elasticity coefficient, sliding coefficient, et al, were calibrated using the real data extracted from the video. Five evacuation strategies, strategy 1 (S1) to strategy 5 (S5) involving distance, density and capacity factors were simulated and compared by indicators of evacuation time and channel utilization rate, as well as the evacuation efficiency. The simulation model parameters calibration results showed that a) the pedestrians walking speed is 1.0~1.5m/s; b) the pedestrians walking diameter is 0.3~0.4m; c) the frequency of pedestrian arrival and departure followed multi-normal distribution. The simulation results showed that, (a) in terms of total evacuation time, the performance of S4 and S5 which considering the capacity and density factors were best in all evacuation scenarios, the performance of S3 which only considering the density factor was the worst, relatively, and S1 and S2 which considering the distance factor were in the middle. (b) the utilization rate of channels under S5 strategy was better than other strategies, which performs best in the balance of evacuation. S3 strategy was the worst, and S1, S2 and S4 were in the middle. (c) in terms of the evacuation efficiency, when the number of evacuees is within 2, 500 peds, the S1 and S2 strategy which considering the distance factor have best evacuation efficiency than other strategies. And when the number of evacuees is above 2, 500 peds, the S4 and S5 strategy which considering the capacity factor are better than others.
Urban Large-scale Public Spaces (ULPS) are important areas of urban culture and economic development, which are also places of the potential safety hazard. ULPS safety assessment has played a crucial role in the theory and practice of urban sustainable development. The primary objective of this study is to explore the interaction between ULPS safety risk and its influencing factors. In the first stage, an index sensitivity analysis method was applied to calculate and identify the safety risk assessment index system. Next, a Delphi method and information entropy method were also applied to collect and calculate the weight of risk assessment indicators. In the second stage, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) method with evidence fusion technique was utilized to analyze the interaction between the ULPS safety risk level and the multiple-index variables, measured by four observed performance indicators, i.e., environmental factor, human factor, equipment factor, and management factor. Finally, an empirical study of DST approach for ULPS safety performance analysis was presented.
Rapidly increasing e-bike use in China has resulted in new traffic problems including rising accident rates at intersections related to e-bike drivers’ decision-making during multiple signal phases. Traditional one-step decision models (such as GHM) lack randomness and cannot adequately model e-bike drivers’ complex behavior. Therefore, this study used a Hidden Markov Driving Model (HMDM) to analyze e-bike drivers’ decision-making process based on high-resolution trajectory data. Video data were collected at three intersections in Shanghai and processed for use in the HMDM model. Five decision types (pass, stop, stop-pass, pass-stop, and multiple) composed of speed and acceleration/deceleration information were defined and used to analyze the impact of flashing green signals on e-bike drivers’ behavior and decision-making processes. Approximately 40% of drivers made multiple decisions during the flashing green and yellow signal phases, in contrast to the traditional GHM model assumption that drivers only make one decision. Distance from stop-line had the most obvious influence on the number of decisions. The use of flashing green signals nearly eliminated the dilemma zone for e-bike drivers but enlarged the option zone, inducing more stop/pass decisions. HMDM can be applied to improve the accuracy of traffic simulation, the fine design of traffic signals, the stability analysis of traffic control schemes, and so on.
At present, Chinese authorities are launching a campaign to convince riders of electric bicycles (e-bikes) and scooters to wear helmets. To explore the effectiveness of this new helmet policy on e-bike cycling behavior and improve existing e-bike management, this study investigates the related statistical distribution characteristics, such as demographic information, travel information, cycling behavior information and riders’ subjective attitude information. The behavioral data of 1048 e-bike riders related to helmet policy were collected by a questionnaire survey in Ningbo, China. A bivariate ordered probit (BOP) model was employed to account for the unobserved heterogeneity. The marginal effects of contributory factors were calculated to quantify their impacts, and the results show that the BOP model can explain the common unobserved features in the helmet policy and cycling behavior of e-bike riders, and that good safety habits stem from long-term safety education and training. The BOP model results show that whether wearing a helmet, using an e-bike after 19:00, and sunny days are factors that affect the helmet wearing rate. Helmet wearing, evenings during rush hour, and picking up children are some of the factors that affect e-bike accident rates. Furthermore, there is a remarkable negative correlation between the helmet wearing rate and e-bike accident rate. Based on these results, some interventions are discussed to increase the helmet usage of e-bike riders in Ningbo, China.
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