Drivers of urban flood disaster risk may be related to many factors from nature and society. However, it is unclear how these factors affect each other and how they ultimately affect the risk. From the perspective of risk uncertainty, flood inundation risk is considered to be the probability of inundation consequences under the influence of various factors. In this paper, urban flood inundation risk assessment model is established based on Bayesian network, and then key disaster-causing factors chains are explored through influence strength analysis. Jingdezhen City is selected as study area, where the flood inundation probability is calculated, and the paths of these influential factors are found. The results show that the probability of inundation in most areas is low. Risk greater than 0.8 account for about 9%, and most of these areas are located in the middle and southern section of the city. The influencing factors interact with each other in the form of factor chain and, finally, affect the flood inundation. Rainfall directly affects inundation, while river is the key factor on inundation which is influenced by elevation and slope. In addition, in the chain of socio-economic factors, the population will determine the pipe density through affecting gross domestic product (GDP), and lead to the inundation. The approach proposed in this study can be used to find key disaster-causing factors chains, which not only quantitatively reveal the formation of risks but also provide reference for early warning.
Urban ood disaster itself brings casualties and property losses, and may induce secondary derivative disasters that can lead to more serious damage. The rainstorm-induced ood -water pollution disasters studied in the paper is a kind of systematic risk. On the basis of determining the ood risk level by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the conditional probability in Bayesian theory is applied to explore and calculate the possibility of ood-induced water environment pollution, then the improved grid environmental risk evaluation method is used to evaluate the ood-induced water pollution risk, and the coupled superposition relationship of ood and water pollution risk is inscribed by constructing risk level matrix, nally the system comprehensive risk of rainstorm-induced ood -water pollution disasters is obtained. Shenzhen City is selected as the study area, and the results showed that the area with high-risk of both ood and water pollution only accounts for about 1.86% of the total area, mainly distributed in the eastern junction of Longgang district and Pingshan district, where the ood risk level is high and the enterprise risk sources are dense. The method proposed in this study can be used for the system comprehensive risk analysis of rainstorm-induced ood -water pollution disasters, which can not only quantitatively reveal the formation of the induced risk, but also provide reference for early warning.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.