The brain generates predictions to prepare for upcoming events. As life is not always 100% predictable, it also estimates a level of certainty for these predictions. Given that autistic individuals resist even small changes in everyday life, we hypothesized impaired tuning of prediction certainty in autism. To study this, EEG was recorded from adolescents and young adults with autism while they performed a probabilistic prediction task in which cue validity was parametrically manipulated. A fully predictable condition (100% cue validity) was contrasted with less predictable conditions (84, 67 and 33% cue validity). Well characterized brain potentials were examined to assess the influence of cue validity on target anticipation (contingent negative variation; CNV), the evaluation of target statistics (P3), and prediction model updating (slow wave; SW). As expected, cue validity systematically influenced the amplitudes of the CNV, P3 and SW in controls. In contrast, cue-validity effects on CNV and SW were substantially reduced in autism. This suggests that although target statistics are accurately registered in autism, as indicated by intact modulation of the P3, they are not effectively applied to generate expectations for upcoming input or model updating. Contrasting the fully predictable with the less predictable conditions, our data suggest that autistic individuals adopted an all-or-none evaluation of certainty of their environment, rather than adjusting certainty of predictions to different levels of environmental statistics. Social responsiveness scores were associated with flexibility in representing prediction certainty, suggesting that impaired representation and updating of prediction certainty may contribute to social difficulties in autism.

According to predictive processing theories of perception, the brain generates predictions to prepare for sensory input, and calibrates certainty of predictions based on their likelihood. When an input doesn't match the prediction, an error signal leads to updating of the predictive model. Prior research suggests altered prediction certainty in autism, but predictive processing occurs across the cortical hierarchy, and the stage(s) of processing where prediction certainty breaks down is unknown. We therefore tested the integrity of prediction certainty in autism at pre-attentive and relatively automatic processing stages using the pre-attentive Mismatch Negativity (MMN) brain response. The MMN occurs in response to a "deviant" presented in a stream of "standards" and is measured while the participant performs an orthogonal task. Most critically, MMN amplitude typically varies with the level of certainty associated with the prediction. We recorded high-density EEG while presenting adolescents and young adults with and without autism with repetitive tones every half second (the standard) interspersed with infrequent pitch and inter-stimulus-interval (ISI) deviants. Pitch and ISI deviant probabilities were manipulated at 4, 8, or 16% within a block of trials to test whether MMN amplitude varied in a typical manner with respect to probability. For both groups, Pitch-MMN amplitude increased as the probability of deviance decreased. Unexpectedly, ISI-MMN amplitude did not reliably vary by probability in either group. Our Pitch-MMN findings suggest intact neural representation of pre-attentive prediction certainty in autism, addressing a critical knowledge gap in autism research. The implications of these findings are considered.

Background Atypical auditory cortical processing is consistently found in scalp electrophysiological and magnetoencephalographic studies of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), and may provide a marker of neuropathological brain development. However, the relationship between atypical cortical processing of auditory information and adaptive behavior in ASD is not yet well understood. Methods We sought to test the hypothesis that early (100-175 ms) auditory processing in ASD is related to everyday adaptive behavior through the examination of auditory event-related potentials (AEPs) in response to simple tones and Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales in a large cohort of children with ASD (N = 84), aged 6–17, and in age- and IQ- matched neurotypically (NT) developing controls (N = 132). Results Statistical analyses revealed significant group differences in early AEPs over temporal scalp regions (150-175 ms), and the expected rightward lateralization of the AEP (100-125 ms and 150-175 ms) to tonal stimuli in both groups. Lateralization of the AEP (150-175 ms) was significantly associated with adaptive functioning in the socialization domain. Conclusions These results lend support to the hypothesis that atypical processing of sensory information is related to everyday adaptive behavior in autism.

The brain generates predictions to prepare for upcoming events. As life is not always 100% predictable, it also estimates a level of certainty for these predictions based on their likelihood. Given that autistic individuals resist even small changes in everyday life, we hypothesized impaired tuning of prediction certainty in autism. To study this, EEG was recorded from adolescents and young adults with autism, and age- and IQ-matched controls while they performed a probabilistic cued target detection task in which cue validity was parametrically manipulated. A fully predictable condition (100% cue validity) was contrasted with less predictable conditions (84%, 67%, and 33% cue validity). The contingent negative variation (CNV), a brain response associated with the anticipation of a predictable target, was examined to test the influence of cue validity on target predictions. Whereas the CNV systematically modulated by cue validity in the control group, this was not the case for the autism group. In contrast, intact modulation of the target P3 response by cue validity indicated that stimulus statistics are registered in a typical manner in autism. This suggests that in autism target statistics were registered but were not effectively applied to modulate expectations (e.g., certainty) of upcoming predictable stimuli. This adds to our understanding of differences in predictive processing in autism and suggests that the tuning of prediction certainty is particularly vulnerable in this population.