The article deals with the method of calculating the fractal analysis, the time series of economic sustainability of the industrial enterprise on the trend-resistant sustainability were investigated by estimating the depth of the long-term memory of the time series and constructing a phase portrait. According to the approach used, the “depth of the long memory” is estimated in terms of fuzzy sets. The approach to the estimation of the index of economic stability is developed, based on the methods of forming an integrated indicator consisting of an assessment of such subsystems as the industrial and technical, financial-economic and subsystem of main parameters of the market environment. These helps to estimate the economic stability of the enterprise in the conditions of incomplete information from purpose of making effective management decisions. Combination of techniques for the formation of an integral index and a fractal analysis of the assessment of its trend stability showed an effective result, which was confirmed by the experiments.
The article highlights the results of a study of the dynamic evolutionary processes of trophic relations between populations of enterprises. A model based on differential equations is constructed, which describes the economic system and takes into account the dynamics of the specific income of competing populations of enterprises in relations of protocooperation, nonlinearity of growth and competition. This model can be used to analyze the dynamics of transient processes in various life cycle scenarios and predict the synergistic effect of mergers and acquisitions. A bifurcation analysis of possible scenarios of dynamic modes of merger and acquisition processes using the neural network system of pattern recognition was carried out. To this end, a Kohonen self-organizing map has been constructed, which recognizes phase portraits of bifurcation diagrams of enterprises life cycle into five separate classes in accordance with the scenarios of their development. As a result of the experimental study, characteristic modes of the evolution of economic systems were revealed, and also conclusions were made on the mechanisms of influence of the external environment and internal structure on the regime of evolution of populations of enterprises.
Кандидат технічних наук, доцент, професор кафедри інформаційних систем в економіці Державний вищий навчальний заклад «Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана» просп. Перемоги, 54/1, м. Київ, 03680, Україна ivan734@i.ua С. С. Ващаєв Кандидат економічних наук, доцент, директор Інституту інформаційних технологій в економіці Державний вищий навчальний заклад «Київський національний економічний університет імені Вадима Гетьмана» просп. Перемоги, 54/1, м. Київ, 03680, Україна dean.fisit@kneu.edu.ua У статті висвітлено результати дослідження динамічних еволюційних процесів трофічних відносин між популяціями підприємств. Побудовано модель поведінки економічної системи на основі диференціальних рівнянь, що враховує динаміку питомих доходів конкуруючих популяцій підприємств у відносинах протокооперації, нелінійності зростання та конкуренції і може застосовуватися для аналізу динаміки перехідних процесів у різних сценаріях життєвих циклів, а також для прогнозування синергетичного ефекту злиття та поглинання. Проведено біфуркаційний аналіз можливих сценаріїв динамічних режимів проходження процесів злиття та поглинання з використанням нейромережевої системи розпізнавання образів. З цією метою у статті побудовано самоорганізаційну карту Кохонена, яка здійснювала розпізнавання фазових портретів біфуркаційних діаграм життєвого циклу підприємств за п'ятьма окремими класами, відповідно до сценаріїв їх розвитку. У результаті проведеного експериментального дослідження виявлено характерні режими перебігу еволюції економічних систем, зроблено висновки щодо механізмів впливу зовнішнього середовища та внутрішньої структури на режим еволюції популяцій підприємств.Ключові слова: моделювання, еволюція, злиття, поглинання, са моорганізація, карта Кохонена, біфуркаційний аналіз, атрактор.
Purpose. The article studies the convergence between the regions of Ukraine in terms of the basic foodstuff consumption per capita during 2000–2019, taking into account the effects of spatial interaction across regions. Methodology / approach. The convergence analysis between regions of Ukraine is based on the concept of β-convergence which can be tested using spatial econometric models namely spatial autoregressive models and spatial error models. The need for considering spatial interaction can be explained by the fact that regions are characterized by constant interaction with each other. Therefore, region should not be considered as isolated objects in space in empirical research with usage of panel data. Ignoring the spatial interaction between regions and using standard evaluation procedures can reduce the reliability and validity of the obtained results to some extent. Results. The results of our calculation confirm the process of β-convergence of average per capita consumption of all food groups, which means that food consumption in regions with an initial low level of consumption is growing faster than in regions with high initial levels of consumption. Also, as part of the use of spatial econometric models the convergence process was determined to be influenced by spatial interaction between regions while the influence of neighbouring regions has a positive effect on food consumption in particular region. Originality / scientific novelty. The article further develops the main ideas of modeling interregional differentiation based on convergence theory and for the first time, spatial econometric models were used to estimate β-convergence of Ukrainian regions by the levels of consumption of basic foodstuffs. Practical value / implications. The approach proposed by the authors and the obtained results can be used both by state authorities on agrarian policy and food issues, and by enterprises of the agricultural sector in the analysis and forecasting of trends in the consumption of basic foodstuffs at the regional level; when planning the production, processing and delivery of agricultural products, when planning state or regional trade policy in the field of food. At the same time, the inclusion of spatial effects in the model of evaluating convergence will allow policymakers to take into account the geographical features of the convergence process and, accordingly, make more informed decisions to reduce the differentiation of regions of Ukraine by the levels of consumption of basic foodstuffs.
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