Despite extensive culling of common vampire bats in Latin America, lethal human rabies outbreaks transmitted by this species are increasingly recognized, and livestock rabies occurs with striking frequency. To identify the individual and population-level factors driving rabies virus (RV) transmission in vampire bats, we conducted a longitudinal capture–recapture study in 20 vampire bat colonies spanning four regions of Peru. Serology demonstrated the circulation of RV in vampire bats from all regions in all years. Seroprevalence ranged from 3 to 28 per cent and was highest in juvenile and sub-adult bats. RV exposure was independent of bat colony size, consistent with an absence of population density thresholds for viral invasion and extinction. Culling campaigns implemented during our study failed to reduce seroprevalence and were perhaps counterproductive for disease control owing to the targeted removal of adults, but potentially greater importance of juvenile and sub-adult bats for transmission. These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms of RV maintenance in vampire bats and highlight the need for ecologically informed approaches to rabies prevention in Latin America.

Although there are over 1,150 bat species worldwide, the diversity of viruses harbored by bats has only recently come into focus as a result of expanded wildlife surveillance. Such surveys are of importance in determining the potential for novel viruses to emerge in humans, and for optimal management of bats and their habitats. To enhance our knowledge of the viral diversity present in bats, we initially surveyed 415 sera from African and Central American bats. Unbiased high-throughput sequencing revealed the presence of a highly diverse group of bat-derived viruses related to hepaciviruses and pegiviruses within the family Flaviridae. Subsequent PCR screening of 1,258 bat specimens collected worldwide indicated the presence of these viruses also in North America and Asia. A total of 83 bat-derived viruses were identified, representing an infection rate of nearly 5%. Evolutionary analyses revealed that all known hepaciviruses and pegiviruses, including those previously documented in humans and other primates, fall within the phylogenetic diversity of the bat-derived viruses described here. The prevalence, unprecedented viral biodiversity, phylogenetic divergence, and worldwide distribution of the bat-derived viruses suggest that bats are a major and ancient natural reservoir for both hepaciviruses and pegiviruses and provide insights into the evolutionary history of hepatitis C virus and the human GB viruses.

Anticipating how epidemics will spread across landscapes requires understanding host dispersal events that are notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we contrast host and virus genetic signatures to resolve the spatiotemporal dynamics underlying geographic expansions of vampire bat rabies virus (VBRV) in Peru. Phylogenetic analysis revealed recent viral spread between populations that, according to extreme geographic structure in maternally inherited host mitochondrial DNA, appeared completely isolated. In contrast, greater population connectivity in biparentally inherited nuclear microsatellites explained the historical limits of invasions, suggesting that dispersing male bats spread VBRV between genetically isolated female populations. Host nuclear DNA further indicated unanticipated gene flow through the Andes mountains connecting the VBRV-free Pacific coast to the VBRV-endemic Amazon rainforest. By combining Bayesian phylogeography with landscape resistance models, we projected invasion routes through northern Peru that were validated by real-time livestock rabies mortality data. The first outbreaks of VBRV on the Pacific coast of South America could occur by June 2020, which would have serious implications for agriculture, wildlife conservation, and human health. Our results show that combining host and pathogen genetic data can identify sex biases in pathogen spatial spread, which may be a widespread but underappreciated phenomenon, and demonstrate that genetic forecasting can aid preparedness for impending viral invasions.Desmodus | zoonotic disease | forecasting | sex bias | spatial dynamics