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Tous droits réservés © HEC Montréal, 2010 Ce document est protégé par la loi sur le droit d'auteur. L'utilisation des services d'Érudit (y compris la reproduction) est assujettie à sa politique d'utilisation que vous pouvez consulter en ligne.https://apropos.erudit.org/fr/usagers/politique-dutilisation/ Cet article est diffusé et préservé par Érudit.Érudit est un consortium interuniversitaire sans but lucratif composé de l'Université de Montréal, l'Université Laval et l'Université du Québec à Montréal. Il a pour mission la promotion et la valorisation de la recherche. Résumé -L'analyse des mésalignements des taux de change, sur/sous-évaluations des monnaies, reste au coeur des débats de la finance internationale. Or, ces mésalignements ne peuvent être définis et mesurés qu'en référence à un taux de change d'équilibre. On considère que le modèle pertinent doit répondre à certaines exigences, qui relèvent à la fois du contenu théorique et du caractère opérationnel. Au niveau théorique ce modèle devra s'attacher d'une part à expliquer la dynamique des taux de change réels, en distinguant notamment les équilibres de moyen et long terme; d'autre part à rendre compte de l'interaction taux de change-dette externe. On montre que les modèles standard de la littérature que sont la ppA, le modèle FEER et le modèle BEER, ne répondent que partiellement à ces exigences, et qu'a contrario, le NATREX constitue à ce jour l'approche la plus élaborée. On procède à une application empirique au cas du dollar canadien à partir des trois modèles de référence, le FEER, le BEER et le NATREX, sur la période débutant au 1 er trimestre de 1970 et se terminant au 3 e trimestre de 2008. On en déduit les valeurs correspondantes pour le taux de change nominal d'équilibre du dollar canadien contre dollar américain. On conclut que le NATREX constitue un guide utile pour les autorités monétaires, comme pour les opérateurs privés.AbstRAct -The exchange rate misalignments, i.e. the over/under evaluation of currencies, remain at the heart of discussions of international finance. To define and to measure these misalignments, it's necessary to refer to an equilibrium exchange rate. We consider 132L'AcTuALiTé écONOMiquE that the relevant model must meet certain requirements, which relate to both the theoretical and operational content. On the theoretical level, the model must: firstly explain the dynamics of real exchange rates, distinguishing in particular the medium and long run equilibrium, and secondly take into account the interaction between the exchange rate and the external debt. We show that standard models of literature, the ppp, FEER and BEER, only partially meet these requirements, whereas the NATREX today represents the most sophisticated approach. We conduct an empirical application to the case of the canadian dollar from the three reference models, the FEER, the BEER and the NATREX over the period 1970q1-2008q3. We deduce the corresponding value for the nominal exchange rate equilibrium in the canadian dollar against the u.S. dollar....

During the period 1971-2007, Japanese sectoral exports to China and the United States depended on real exchange rate fluctuations and external demand (GDP of the country of destination). This result holds for both geographical destinations and for all six sectors under investigation in this study: foods, textiles, metal products, chemicals, non-metal products, and machinery and equipment. For both China and the United States and for almost all sectors, the real exchange rate fluctuations and GDP have had the expected effects. Real appreciation of the yen and greater uncertainty derived from increased exchange rate volatility have reduced Japanese exports.

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This empirical study of per capita income convergence across the countries of the Indian Ocean Zone (IOZ) during 1950-2008 relies on a distribution dynamics approach that employs both stochastic kernels (stacked and high-density region plots) and a nonparametric estimator. During this period, no absolute convergence process of incomes occurs in the IOZ. Nevertheless, a bipolar situation emerges, such that countries with the weakest relative incomes in relation to the IOZ average remain in the same relative position-that is, the poorest countries remain poor. The relatively richest countries (i.e., Australia, Malaysia, Mauritius, Singapore, and Thailand) constitute a convergence club. Use of conditioned distributions shows that the dynamics of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) distributions can be explained both by the openness rate measured as trade/GDP ratio, or a proxy for trade policy, and by manufactured goods exports. However, this result likely confirms that the openness was accompanied by an increase in manufactured goods trade for many of these countries. In addition, openness defined following Sachs and Warner has a less explanatory power than traditional measure. Finally, bilateral trade and trade agreements have limited effects.

Despite the increasing attention in recent years to the spatial dimensions of economic development, consideration of the importance of space and the recognition that macro, aspatial perspectives can prove to be misleading are not new. Around the world, much of the disappointment with the outcomes from spatial interventions may be traced to a lack of understanding of how regional economies work. This paper reviews the challenges that the consideration of regions brings into economic analysis. This work provides an overview of some of the key methods and tools that can be used to gain a better understanding of how regional economies work. The review aims to guide practitioners and analysts in the use of tools for regional economic analysis and inform discussion of the challenges regions face and the opportunities on which they can build.

Résumé Une estimation non paramétrique du taux de change réel effectif d’équilibre de long terme du dirham vis-à-vis de l’Union européenne (UE) des Quinze a été réalisée sur la période 1967-2000 (données trimestrielles), en retenant les fondamentaux suivants : les termes de l’échange externes ; le taux d’ouverture de l’économie ; le ratio des dépenses publiques (en pourcentage du PIB) et le ratio entre la balance commerciale et le PIB. Ce travail a permis de mettre en évidence des phases distinctes de sur/sous-évaluation du dirham. Ces mésalignements sont globalement cohérents avec ce que peuvent donner d’autres études, avec des modèles théoriques différents. Par ailleurs, l’utilisation des méthodes non paramétriques et non linéaires permet de mieux apprécier l’évaluation du taux de change effectif réel en fonction des fondamentaux de l’économie. Classification JEL  : C22 ; F31.

Abstract. This Manifesto provides a joint proposal to create a Regional Science Academy as a think-tank support platform for a strategic development of the spatial sciences. The Regional Science Academy is a strategic spatial knowledge catalyst: it acts as a global intellectual powerhouse for new knowledge network initiatives and scholarly views on regions and cities as vital centrepieces of interconnected spatial systems. This contribution highlights its role and presents various activity plans.'All the forces in the world are not so powerful as an idea whose time has come' Victor Hugo 1 Prologue 'The most dangerous worldview is the worldview of those who have not viewed the world' Alexander von HumboldtOver the past months, various scholars with a deep professional interest in the spatial sciences have met in varying compositions and on different occasions to discuss the strong and weak points in the spatial sciences, in particular from the perspective of their future vitality, with a view to identifying promising opportunities that would make a difference. Their intensive discussions were prompted by a widely shared concern on the lack of innovativeness, vibrancy, and external recognition of the spatial sciences. R1