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This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion (1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.

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[1] The late Holocene activity of a restraining bend of the northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault in Izmit Bay was investigated by a sedimentological, geochemical, and paleoecological analysis of sediment cores from Hersek coastal lagoon, NW Turkey. The sediment cores show a succession of sedimentary sequences composed of three units separated by gradual transitions. The first unit is composed of a thin layer of shell debris-rich sediment in abrupt contact with the underlying organic-rich deposits. This unit is overlain by a thick foraminifera-rich mud deposit, and the sequences are capped by an organic-rich mud unit. These sequences are interpreted as silting up, shallowing upward deposits, typical of a lagoon becoming isolated from the sea. We suggest that they represent the sedimentary signature of coseismic subsidence, which was caused by reverse slip at the Hersek bend, and tsunamis in Izmit Bay. Our radiocarbon-dated paleoseismological record indicates (1) the atypical collapse of the hanging wall during the 740 earthquake and (2) subsidence of the footwall during the 987, 1509, and 1719 earthquakes. This study contributes to the understanding of the dynamics of restraining bends, and it highlights the potential of coastal sediments for reconstructing past earthquakes and tsunamis in regions dominated by strike-slip deformations.