The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km; 33% growth), making it the fastest-growing land use type in the conterminous United States. The vast majority of new WUI areas were the result of new housing (97%), not related to an increase in wildland vegetation. Within the perimeter of recent wildfires (1990-2015), there were 286,000 houses in 2010, compared with 177,000 in 1990. Furthermore, WUI growth often results in more wildfire ignitions, putting more lives and houses at risk. Wildfire problems will not abate if recent housing growth trends continue.

Ecologists need data on animal–habitat associations in terrestrial and aquatic environments to design and implement effective conservation strategies. Habitat characteristics used in models typically incorporate (1) field data of limited spatial extent and/or (2) remote sensing data that do not characterize the vertical habitat structure. Remote sensing tools that directly characterize three‐dimensional (3‐D) habitat structure and that provide data relevant to organism–habitat interactions across a hierarchy of scales promise to improve our understanding of animal–habitat relationships. Laser altimetry, commonly called light detection and ranging (lidar), is a source of geospatial data that can provide fine‐grained information about the 3‐D structure of ecosystems across broad spatial extents. In this review, we present a brief overview of lidar technology, discuss recent applications of lidar data in investigations of animal–habitat relationships, and propose future applications of this technology to issues of broad species‐management and conservation interest.

Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision.econometric model | incentives | at-risk birds | game species | amphibians L and-use change can greatly alter the provision of ecosystem services. Globally, the conversion of native grasslands, forests, and wetlands into croplands, tree plantations, and developed areas has led to vast increases in production of food, timber, housing, and other commodities but at the cost of reductions in many ecosystem services and biodiversity (1). Although recent land-use change in the United States has not been as rapid as in the tropics, it has been significant. The area of croplands has decreased and forests and urban areas have expanded since World War II (2). For example, forest lands in the contiguous United States expanded by 5.7 million acres between 1982 and 2007. However, basic estimates of net land-use change often hide more complex dynamics. More than 30 million acres transitioned into or out of forest between 1982 and 2007 (3). Such transitions alter landscape patterns and ecosystem functions, both of which affect the provision of ecosystem services.We use an econometric model to predict spatially explicit landuse change across the contiguous United States from 2001 to 2051. The model estimates the probability of conversion among major land-use categories (cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) based on observations of past land-use change, characteristics of land parcels, and economic returns, while accounting for endogenous feedbacks from the policies into commodity prices. A key advantage of this approach is that it allows us to simulate the effects of future policies that modify the relative ret...

Quantifying forest structure is important for sustainable forest management, as it relates to a wide variety of ecosystem processes and services. Lidar data have proven particularly useful for measuring or estimating a suite of forest structural attributes such as canopy height, basal area, and LAI. However, the potential of this technology to characterize forest succession remains largely untested. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of lidar data for characterizing forest successional stages across a structurally diverse, mixed-species forest in Northern Idaho. We used a variety of lidar-derived metrics in conjunction with an algorithmic modeling procedure (Random Forests) to classify six stages of three-dimensional forest development and achieved an overall accuracy N 95%. The algorithmic model presented herein developed ecologically meaningful classifications based upon lidar metrics quantifying mean vegetation height and canopy cover, among others. This study highlights the utility of lidar data for accurately classifying forest succession in complex, mixed coniferous forests; but further research should be conducted to classify forest successional stages across different forests types. The techniques presented herein can be easily applied to other areas. Furthermore, the final classification map represents a significant advancement for forest succession modeling and wildlife habitat assessment.

The lack of maps depicting forest three-dimensional structure, particularly as pertaining to snags and understory shrub species distribution, is a major limitation for managing wildlife habitat in forests. Developing new techniques to remotely map snags and understory shrubs is therefore an important need. To address this, we first evaluated the use of LiDAR data for mapping the presence/absence of understory shrub species and different snag diameter classes important for birds (i.e. ≥15 cm, ≥ 25 cm and ≥ 30 cm) in a 30,000 ha mixed-conifer forest in Northern Idaho (USA). We used forest inventory plots, LiDAR-derived metrics, and the Random Forest algorithm to achieve classification accuracies of 83% for the understory shrubs and 86% to 88% for the different snag diameter classes. Second, we evaluated the use of LiDAR data for mapping wildlife habitat suitability using four avian species (one flycatcher and three woodpeckers) as case studies. For this, we integrated LiDAR-derived products of forest structure with available models of habitat suitability to derive a variety of species-habitat associations (and therefore habitat suitability patterns) across the study area. We found that the value of LiDAR resided in the ability to quantify 1) ecological variables that are known to influence the distribution of understory vegetation and snags, such as canopy cover, topography, and forest succession, and 2) direct structural metrics that indicate or suggest the presence of shrubs and snags, such as the percent of vegetation returns in the lower strata of the canopy (for the shrubs) and the vertical heterogeneity of the forest canopy (for the snags). When applied to wildlife habitat assessment, these new LiDAR-based maps refined habitat predictions in ways not previously attainable using other remote sensing technologies. This study highlights new value of LiDAR in characterizing key forest structure components important for wildlife, and warrants further applications to other forested environments and wildlife species.

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Sound forest policy and management decisions to mitigate rising atmospheric CO 2 depend upon accurate methodologies to quantify forest carbon pools and fluxes over large tracts of land. LiDAR remote sensing is a rapidly evolving technology for quantifying aboveground biomass and thereby carbon pools; however, little work has evaluated the efficacy of repeat LiDAR measures for spatially monitoring aboveground carbon pools through time. Our study objective was therefore to evaluate the use of discrete return airborne LiDAR for quantifying biomass change and carbon flux from repeat field and LiDAR surveys. We collected LiDAR data in 2003 and 2009 across~20,000 ha of an actively managed, mixed conifer forest landscape in northern Idaho. The Random Forest machine learning algorithm was used to impute aboveground biomass pools of trees, saplings, shrubs, herbaceous plants, coarse and fine woody debris, litter, and duff using field-based forest inventory data and metrics derived from the LiDAR collections. Separate predictive tree aboveground biomass models were developed from the 2003 and 2009 field and LiDAR data, and biomass change was estimated at the plot, pixel, and landscape levels by subtracting 2003 predictions from 2009 predictions. Traditional stand exam data were used to independently validate 2003 and 2009 tree aboveground biomass predictions and tree aboveground biomass change estimates at the stand level. Over this 6-year period, we found a mean increase in tree aboveground biomass due to forest growth across the non-harvested portions of 4.1 Mg/ha/yr. We found that 26.3% of the landscape had been harvested during this time period which outweighed growth at the landscape level, resulting in a net tree aboveground biomass change of − 5.7 Mg/ha/yr, and − 2.3 Mg/ha/yr in total aboveground carbon, summed across all the aboveground biomass pools. Change in aboveground biomass was related to forest successional status; younger stands gained two-to threefold less biomass than did more mature stands. This result suggests that even the most mature forest stands are valuable carbon sinks, and implies that forest management decisions that include longer harvest rotation cycles are likely to favor higher levels of aboveground carbon storage in this system. A 30-fold difference in LiDAR sampling density between the 2003 and 2009 collections did not affect plot-scale biomass estimation. These results suggest that repeat LiDAR surveys are useful for accurately quantifying high resolution, spatially explicit biomass and carbon dynamics in conifer forests. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Abstract. Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-asusual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (À16%) and pasture (À13%). Areas with particularly high rates of landuse change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.