Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk

Radeloff, Volker C.; Helmers, David P.; Kramer, H. Anu; Mockrin, Miranda H.; Alexandre, P; Bar‐Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Stewart, Susan I.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1718850115

Cited by 696 publications

(497 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…As research progresses, large wildfires will continue to grip public attention owing to their destructive capabilities and endangerment of human societies (Radeloff et al, 2018;Schoennagel et al, 2017).…”

Section: There Is Need For Collaboration Across Land-water Boundaries Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do lakes feel the burn? Ecological consequences of increasing exposure of lakes to fire in the continental United States

McCullough

Cheruvelil

Lapierre

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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Wildfires are becoming larger and more frequent across much of the United States due to anthropogenic climate change. No studies, however, have assessed fire prevalence in lake watersheds at broad spatial and temporal scales, and thus it is unknown whether wildfires threaten lakes and reservoirs (hereafter, lakes) of the United States. We show that fire activity has increased in lake watersheds across the continental United States from 1984 to 2015, particularly since 2005. Lakes have experienced the greatest fire activity in the western United States, Southern Great Plains, and Florida. Despite over 30 years of increasing fire exposure, fire effects on fresh waters have not been well studied; previous research has generally focused on streams, and most of the limited lake‐fire research has been conducted in boreal landscapes. We therefore propose a conceptual model of how fire may influence the physical, chemical, and biological properties of lake ecosystems by synthesizing the best available science from terrestrial, aquatic, fire, and landscape ecology. This model also highlights emerging research priorities and provides a starting point to help land and lake managers anticipate potential effects of fire on ecosystem services provided by fresh waters and their watersheds.

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Section: There Is Need For Collaboration Across Land-water Boundaries Inmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do lakes feel the burn? Ecological consequences of increasing exposure of lakes to fire in the continental United States

McCullough

Cheruvelil

Lapierre

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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“…Humans dominate the wildfire regime across much of the state by altering land cover (Sleeter et al, 2011;Syphard et al, 2018), supplying the vast majority of ignitions (Balch et al, 2017;Nagy et al, 2018), and attempting to suppress essentially all fires. Even under constant climate conditions, changes in California's fire activity over the past century would be expected as populations increased and cities expanded into surrounding wildlands (Radeloff et al, 2018), fire suppression strategies evolved (Stephens & Ruth, 2005), and frequency and type of humanignited wildfires changed (Balch et al, 2017;Keeley & Syphard, 2018). Even under constant climate conditions, changes in California's fire activity over the past century would be expected as populations increased and cities expanded into surrounding wildlands (Radeloff et al, 2018), fire suppression strategies evolved (Stephens & Ruth, 2005), and frequency and type of humanignited wildfires changed (Balch et al, 2017;Keeley & Syphard, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California

et al. 2019

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Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972-2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest-fire extent. Increased summer forest-fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm-season days warmed by approximately 1.4°C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest-fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest-fire area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest-fire area during 1972-2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in nonforested lands. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire regimes, warming-driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date.Plain Language Summary Since the early 1970s, California's annual wildfire extent increased fivefold, punctuated by extremely large and destructive wildfires in 2017 and 2018. This trend was mainly due to an eightfold increase in summertime forest-fire area and was very likely driven by drying of fuels promoted by human-induced warming. Warming effects were also apparent in the fall by enhancing the odds that fuels are dry when strong fall wind events occur. The ability of dry fuels to promote large fires is nonlinear, which has allowed warming to become increasingly impactful. Human-caused warming has already significantly enhanced wildfire activity in California, particularly in the forests of the Sierra Nevada and North Coast, and will likely continue to do so in the coming decades.

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“…The coincidence of land development in areas prone to wind driven extreme fire weather (i.e., Diablo winds [5], Santa Ana winds [6]) results in fire-related hazards for a large number of people [7]. Approximately one-third of Californians reside in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), with overall population living in the WUI expected to increase in the coming decades [8][9][10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study

Nauslar

Abatzoglou

Marsh³

2018

Fire

132

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Two extreme wind-driven wildfire events impacted California in late 2017, leading to 46 fatalities and thousands of structures lost. This study characterizes the meteorological and climatological factors that drove and enabled these wildfire events and quantifies their rarity over the observational record. Both events featured key fire-weather metrics that were unprecedented in the observational record that followed a sequence of climatic conditions that enhanced fine fuel abundance and fuel availability. The North Bay fires of October 2017 occurred coincident with strong downslope winds, with a majority of burned area occurring within the first 12 h of ignition. By contrast, the southern California fires of December 2017 occurred during the longest Santa Ana wind event on record, resulting in the largest wildfire in California's modern history. Both fire events occurred following an exceptionally wet winter that was preceded by a severe four-year drought. Fuels were further preconditioned by the warmest summer and autumn on record in northern and southern California, respectively. Finally, delayed onset of autumn precipitation allowed for critically low dead fuel moistures leading up to the wind events. Fire weather conditions were well forecast several days prior to the fire. However, the rarity of fire-weather conditions that occurred near populated regions, along with other societal factors such as limited evacuation protocols and limited wildfire preparedness in communities outside of the traditional wildland urban interface were key contributors to the widespread wildfire impacts.

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Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk

Cited by 696 publications

References 34 publications

Do lakes feel the burn? Ecological consequences of increasing exposure of lakes to fire in the continental United States

Do lakes feel the burn? Ecological consequences of increasing exposure of lakes to fire in the continental United States

Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California

The 2017 North Bay and Southern California Fires: A Case Study

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