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This research focuses on the development of an Initial Bayesian Network (BN) model for modelling system and component failures on a large offshore installation. The intention of the presented research is to model a sequence of events following a specific component failure, under certain conditions and assumptions. This sequence of events is then applied to a BN
Ship motion is an important influencing factor in passenger ship evacuation that affects the entire evacuation process by reducing individual walking speed. This study used Dalian Maritime University's training ship to conduct human walking experiments to study the influence of ship motion onNormal and fast walking speeds.It was found that during the berthing period, the individual Normal walking speed was 1.28-1.68 m/s, and the fast walking speed was 1.50-2.14 m/s. During the voyage, the ship's rolling motion reduced the Normal walking speed by 3.8%-10.3% and the fast walking speed by 3.7-14.0%. Due to the influence of ship rolling, the higher the deck and the farther away the rolling centre is, the smaller the athwartship and fore-aft walking speeds. Athwartship walking was slightly faster than fore-aft walking. In the Normal walking mode, the athwartship walking speed was 1.6%-3.7% faster than fore-aft walking, and in the fast walking mode, the athwartship walking speed was 0.8%-4.9% faster than fore-aft walking. During the berthing period, the average speed of the younger group was 24.1% higher than that of the older group. During the voyage, the reduction ratio of the individual walking speed was 86.0%-96.2%, and the value decreased as the deck height increased.
This study examines and analyzes marine accidents that have occurred over the past 20 years in the Black Sea. Geographic information system, human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS), and Bayesian network models are used to analyze the marine accidents. The most important feature distinguishing this study from other studies is that this is the first study to analyze accidents that have occurred across the whole Black Sea. Another important feature is the application of a new HFACS structure to reveal accident formation patterns. The results of this study indicate that accidents occurred in high concentrations in coastal regions of the Black Sea, especially in the Kerch Strait, Novorossiysk, Kilyos, Constanta, Riva, and Batumi regions. The formation of grounding and sinking accidents has been found to be similar in nature; the use of inland and old vessels has been highlighted as important factors in sinking and grounding incidents. However, the sequence of events leading to collision-contact accidents differs from the sequence of events resulting in grounding and sinking accidents. This study aims to provide information to the maritime industry regarding the occurrence of maritime incidents in the Black Sea, in order to assist with reduction and prevention of the marine accidents.
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