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Background-Despite consensus on the need for blood cholesterol reductions to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD), available evidence on optimal cholesterol levels or the added predictive value of additional lipids is sparse. Methods and Results-After 10 years follow-up of 12 339 middle-aged participants free of CHD in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC), 725 CHD events occurred. The lowest incidence was observed in those at the lowest LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) quintile, with medians of 88 mg/dL in women and 95 mg/dL in men, and risk accelerated at higher levels, with relative risks (RRs) for the highest quintile of 2.7 in women and 2.5 in men. LDL-C, HDL-C, lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)], and in women but not men, triglycerides (TG) were all independent CHD predictors, providing an RR, together with blood pressure, smoking, and diabetes, of 13.5 in women and 4.9 in men. Lp(a) was less significant in blacks than whites. Prediction was not enhanced by HDL-C density subfractions or apolipoproteins (apo) A-I or B. Despite strong univariate associations, apoB did not contribute to risk prediction in subgroups with elevated TG, with lower LDL-C, or with high apoB relative to LDL-C. Conclusions-Optimal LDL-C values are Ͻ100 mg/dL in both women and men. LDL-C, HDL-C, TG, and Lp(a), without additional apolipoproteins or lipid subfractions, provide substantial CHD prediction, with much higher RR in women than men.

Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0•685 (95% CI 0•629-0•741) to 0•833 (0•783-0•882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide.

Background-Despite population declines in all-cause mortality, women with diabetes mellitus may have experienced an increase in mortality rates compared with men.

Background-Marked reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality have occurred in the UnitedStates over the last 50 years. We tested the hypothesis that the relative burden of CVD attributable to diabetes mellitus (DM) has increased over the past 5 decades. Methods and Results-Participants aged 45 to 64 years from the Framingham Heart Study, who attended examinations in an "early" time period (1952 to 1974), were compared with those who attended examinations in a later time period (1975 to 1998). The risk of CVD events (nϭ133 among those with and 1093 among those without DM) attributable to DM in the 2 time periods was assessed with Cox proportional hazards models; population attributable risk of DM as a CVD risk factor was calculated for each time period. The age-and sex-adjusted hazard ratio for DM as a CVD risk factor was 3.0 (95% CI, 2.3 to 3.9) in the earlier time period and 2.5 (95% CI, 1.9 to 3.2) in the later time period. The population attributable risk for DM as a CVD risk factor increased from 5.4% (95% CI, 3.8% to 6.9%) in the earlier time period to 8.7% (95% CI, 5.9% to 11.4%) in the later time period (P for attributable risk ratioϭ0.04), although multivariable adjustment resulted in attenuation of these findings (Pϭ0.12); most of these observations were found among men. Conclusions-The proportion of CVD attributable to DM has increased over the past 50 years in Framingham. These findings emphasize the need for increased efforts to prevent DM and to aggressively treat and control CVD risk factors among those with DM.

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Abstract-African Americans have higher reported hypertension prevalence and lower control rates than other ethnic groups in the United States. Hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control (outcomes) and potentially associated demographic, lifestyle, comorbidity, and health care access factors were examined in 5249 adult participants (3362 women and 1887 men) aged 21 to 94 years enrolled in the Jackson Heart Study. Hypertension prevalence (62.9%), awareness (87.3%), treatment (83.2%), and control (66.4%) were high. Control declined with advancing age; estimates for all of the outcomes were higher for women compared with men. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with prevalence and control. Smoking was negatively associated with awareness and treatment, particularly among men. Comorbidities (diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease), likely driven by the high rates of obesity, correlated with hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control. Lack of health insurance was marginally associated with poorer control, whereas use of preventive care was positively associated with prevalence, awareness, and treatment, particularly among men. In comparisons with the 1994 -2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data adjusted to Jackson Heart Study sex, age, and socioeconomic status distribution, control rates among Jackson Heart Study participants appeared to be higher than in their national counterparts and similar to that of whites. These results suggest that public health efforts to increase awareness and treatment among African Americans have been relatively effective. The Jackson Heart Study data indicate that better control rates can be achieved in this high-risk population. Key Words: hypertension Ⅲ detection and control Ⅲ population Ⅲ epidemiology Ⅲ blood pressure Ⅲ ethnicity H ypertension is likely the single most important modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet blood pressure (BP) control (Ͻ140/90 mm Hg) is reported in just over one third of all hypertensive participants, with widening disparities among treated African Americans. [1][2][3][4][5] Few studies have examined the levels of awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension among an all-African American population. The Jackson Heart Study (JHS), a community-based CVD study in an African-American cohort, offers a rich data source for extensive examination of factors contributing to these levels. Prevalence of hypertension, awareness of BP elevation, treatment with antihypertensive medications, and rate of BP control were described for the JHS cohort as a whole. Differences among subgroups classified by prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control levels were examined in relation to important demographic and health status characteristics. MethodsThe JHS is a single-site cohort study of CVD in African Americans residing in the Jackson metropolitan statistical area. From September 2000 to March 2004, 5302 participants were recruited and examined, including Ϸ50% (1626) of ...