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Understanding trends in stream chemistry is critical to watershed management, and often complicated by multiple contaminant sources and landscape conditions changing over varying time scales. We adapted spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) to infer causes of recent nutrient trends in Chesapeake Bay tributaries by relating observed fluxes during 1992, 2002, and 2012 to contemporary inputs and watershed conditions. The annual flow‐normalized nitrogen flux to the bay from its watershed declined by 14% to 127,000 Mg (metric tons) between 1992 and 2012, due primarily (more than 80% of the decline) to reduced point sources. The remainder of the decline was due to reduced atmospheric deposition (13%) and urban nonpoint sources. Agricultural inputs, which contribute most nitrogen to the bay, changed little, although trends in the average nitrogen yield (flux per unit area) from cropland and pasture to streams in some settings suggest possible effects of evolving nutrient applications or other land management practices. Point sources of phosphorus to local streams declined by half between 1992 and 2012, while nonpoint inputs were relatively unchanged. Annual phosphorus delivery to the bay increased by 9% to 9,570 Mg between 1992 and 2012, however, due mainly to reduced retention in the Susquehanna River at Conowingo Reservoir.

Agricultural chemical transport to surface water and the linkage to other hydrological compartments, principally ground water, was investigated at five watersheds in semiarid to humid climatic settings. Chemical transport was affected by storm water runoff, soil drainage, irrigation, and how streams were linked to shallow ground water systems. Irrigation practices and timing of chemical use greatly affected nutrient and pesticide transport in the semiarid basins. Irrigation with imported water tended to increase ground water and chemical transport, whereas the use of locally pumped irrigation water may eliminate connections between streams and ground water, resulting in lower annual loads. Drainage pathways in humid environments are important because the loads may be transported in tile drains, or through varying combinations of ground water discharge, and overland flow. In most cases, overland flow contributed the greatest loads, but a significant portion of the annual load of nitrate and some pesticide degradates can be transported under base‐flow conditions. The highest basin yields for nitrate were measured in a semiarid irrigated system that used imported water and in a stream dominated by tile drainage in a humid environment. Pesticide loads, as a percent of actual use (LAPU), showed the effects of climate and geohydrologic conditions. The LAPU values in the semiarid study basin in Washington were generally low because most of the load was transported in ground water discharge to the stream. When herbicides are applied during the rainy season in a semiarid setting, such as simazine in the California basin, LAPU values are similar to those in the Midwest basins.

Despite decades of effort toward reducing nitrogen and phosphorus flux to Chesapeake Bay, water-quality and ecological responses in surface waters have been mixed. Recent research, however, provides useful insight into multiple factors complicating the understanding of nutrient trends in bay tributaries, which we review in this paper, as we approach a 2025 total maximum daily load (TMDL) management deadline. Improvements in water quality in many streams are attributable to management actions that reduced point sources and atmospheric nitrogen deposition and to changes in climate. Nutrient reductions expected from management actions, however, have not been fully realized in watershed streams. Nitrogen from urban nonpoint sources has declined, although waterquality responses to urbanization in individual streams vary depending on predevelopment land use. Evolving agriculture, the largest watershed source of nutrients, has likely contributed to local nutrient trends but has not affected substantial changes in flux to the bay. Changing average nitrogen yields from farmland underlain by carbonate rocks, however, may suggest future trends in other areas under similar management, climatic, or other influences, although drivers of these changes remain unclear. Regardless of upstream trends, phosphorus flux to the bay from its largest tributary has increased due to sediment infill in the Conowingo Reservoir. In general, recent research emphasizes the utility of input reductions over attempts to manage nutrient fate and transport at limiting nutrients in surface waters. Ongoing research opportunities include evaluating effects of climate change and conservation practices over time and space and developing tools to disentangle and evaluate multiple influences on regional water quality.

We describe the sources and transport of fluvial suspended sediment in nontidal streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and vicinity. We applied SPAtially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes, which spatially correlates estimated mean annual flux of suspended sediment in nontidal streams with sources of suspended sediment and transport factors. According to our model, urban development generates on average the greatest amount of suspended sediment per unit area (3,928 Mg ⁄ km 2 ⁄ year), although agriculture is much more widespread and is the greatest overall source of suspended sediment (57 Mg ⁄ km 2 ⁄ year). Factors affecting sediment transport from uplands to streams include mean basin slope, reservoirs, physiography, and soil permeability. On average, 59% of upland suspended sediment generated is temporarily stored along large rivers draining the Coastal Plain or in reservoirs throughout the watershed. Applying erosion and sediment controls from agriculture and urban development in areas of the northern Piedmont close to the upper Bay, where the combined effects of watershed characteristics on sediment transport have the greatest influence may be most helpful in mitigating sedimentation in the bay and its tributaries. Stream restoration efforts addressing floodplain and bank stabilization and incision may be more effective in smaller, headwater streams outside of the Coastal Plain.

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), onlineFor more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprodTo order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. SEE CHAPTER 2The Eastern Shore ( fig. 1) includes only a small part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, but contributes disproportionately large loads of the excess nitrogen and phosphorus that have contributed to ecological and economic degradation of the bay in recent decades. Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States and a vital ecological and economic resource. The bay and its tributaries have been degraded in recent decades by excessive nitrogen and phosphorus in the water column, however, which cause harmful algal blooms and decreased water clarity, submerged aquatic vegetation, and dissolved oxygen. The disproportionately large nitrogen and phosphorus yields from the Eastern Shore to Chesapeake Bay are attributable to human land-use practices as well as natural hydrogeologic and soil conditions. Applications of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds to the Eastern Shore from human activities are intensive. Also, hydrogeologic and soil conditions promote the movement of these compounds from application areas on the landscape to groundwater and (or) surface waters, and the proximity of much of the Eastern Shore to tidal waters limits opportunities for natural removal of these compounds in the landscape. The Eastern Shore only includes 7 percent of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, but receives nearly twice as much nitrogen and phosphorus applications (per area) as the remainder of the watershed and yields greater nitrogen and phosphorus, on average, to the bay ( fig. 2). SOURCE INPUTS TO THE EASTERN SHORE Sources of Nitrogen and Phosphorus on the Eastern Shore SEE CHAPTER 3Agricultural operations contribute the vast majority of nitrogen and phosphorus to the landscape on the Eastern Shore. Land use in the area has been primarily agricultural for several hundred years. Nitrogen and phosphorus applications in support of agriculture increased substantially during the second half of the last century, however, but have since stabilized or decreased ( fig. 3). More than 90 percent of nitrogen and phosphorus reaching the land in the Eastern Shore is applied as part of inorganic fertilizers or manure, or (for nitrogen) fixed directly from the atmosphere in cropland ( fig. 4). Nonagricultural sources such as atmospheric deposition, septic systems, sewage treatment plants, or other urban sources...

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