The Iowa Flood Center (IFC), established following the 2008 record floods, has developed a real-time flood forecasting and information dissemination system for use by all Iowans. The system complements the operational forecasting issued by the National Weather Service, is based on sound scientific principles of flood genesis and spatial organization, and includes many technological advances. At its core is a continuous rainfall–runoff model based on landscape decomposition into hillslopes and channel links. Rainfall conversion to runoff is modeled through soil moisture accounting at hillslopes. Channel routing is based on a nonlinear representation of water velocity that considers the discharge amount as well as the upstream drainage area. Mathematically, the model represents a large system of ordinary differential equations organized to follow river network topology. The IFC also developed an efficient numerical solver suitable for high-performance computing architecture. The solver allows the IFC to update forecasts every 15 min for over 1,000 Iowa communities. The input to the system comes from a radar-rainfall algorithm, developed in-house, that maps rainfall every 5 min with high spatial resolution. The algorithm uses Level II radar reflectivity and other polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Dual-Polarimetric (WSR-88DP) radar network. A large library of flood inundation maps and real-time river stage data from over 200 IFC “stream-stage sensors” complement the IFC information system. The system communicates all this information to the general public through a comprehensive browser-based and interactive platform. Streamflow forecasts and observations from Iowa can provide support for a similar system being developed at the National Water Center through model intercomparisons, diagnostic analyses, and product evaluations.

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Rainfall maps that are derived from satellite observations provide hydrologists with an unprecedented opportunity to forecast floods globally. However, the limitations of using these precipitation estimates with respect to producing reliable flood forecasts at multiple scales are not well understood. To address the scientific and practical question of applicability of space-based rainfall products for global flood forecasting, a data evaluation framework is developed that allows tracking the rainfall effects in space and time across scales in the river network. This provides insights on the effects of rainfall product resolution and uncertainty. Obtaining such insights is not possible when the hydrologic evaluation is based on discharge observations from single gauges. The proposed framework also explores the ability of hydrologic model structure to answer questions pertaining to the utility of space-based rainfall observations for flood forecasting. To illustrate the framework, hydrometeorological data collected during the Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign in Iowa are used to perform a hydrologic simulation using two different rainfall–runoff model structures and three rainfall products, two of which are radar based [stage IV and Iowa Flood Center (IFC)] and one satellite based [TMPA–Research Version (RV)]. This allows for exploring the differences in rainfall estimates at several spatial and temporal scales and provides improved understanding of how these differences affect flood predictions at multiple basin scales. The framework allows for exploring the differences in peak flow estimation due to nonlinearities in the hydrologic model structure and determining how these differences behave with an increase in the upstream area through the drainage network. The framework provides an alternative evaluation of precipitation estimates, based on the diagnostics of hydrological model results.

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Abstract. Several authors have reported diel oscillations in streamflow records and have hypothesized that these oscillations are linked to evapotranspiration cycles in the watershed. The timing of oscillations in rivers, however, lags behind those of temperature and evapotranspiration in hillslopes. Two hypotheses have been put forth to explain the magnitude and timing of diel streamflow oscillations during low-flow conditions. The first suggests that delays between the peaks and troughs of streamflow and daily evapotranspiration are due to processes occurring in the soil as water moves toward the channels in the river network. The second posits that they are due to the propagation of the signal through the channels as water makes its way to the outlet of the basin. In this paper, we design and implement a theoretical model to test these hypotheses. We impose a baseflow signal entering the river network and use a linear transport equation to represent flow along the network. We develop analytic streamflow solutions for the case of uniform velocities in space over all river links. We then use our analytic solution to simulate streamflows along a self-similar river network for different flow velocities. Our results show that the amplitude and time delay of the streamflow solution are heavily influenced by transport in the river network. Moreover, our equations show that the geomorphology and topology of the river network play important roles in determining how amplitude and signal delay are reflected in streamflow signals. Finally, we have tested our theoretical formulation in the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, where oscillations are clearly observed in streamflow records. We find that our solution produces streamflow values and fluctuations that are similar to those observed in the summer of 2011.