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Abstract. Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by .60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate.

The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic climate change are widely known. Moreover, rates of genetic adaptation and/or changes in the coral-zooxanthella partnerships are considered unlikely to be sufficiently fast for corals to acquire increased physiological resistance to increasing sea temperatures and declining pH. However, it has been suggested that coral reef resilience to climate change may be improved by good local management of coral reefs, including management of water quality. Here, using major data sets from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, we investigate geographic patterns of coral bleaching in 1998 and 2002 and outline a synergism between heat stress and nutrient flux as a major causative mechanism for those patterns. The study provides the first concrete evidence for the oft-expressed belief that improved coral reef management will increase the regional-scale survival prospects of coral reefs to global climate change.

The symbiosis between reef-building corals and their algae endosymbionts is sensitive to temperature stress, which makes coral reefs vulnerable to climate change. However, a precise understanding of the capacity for the symbiosis to adapt to climate change is currently restricted by the lack of coherent explanation for the set of cellular events leading to its warm-water breakdown (= coral bleaching). Here, a new coral bleaching model is proposed in which the triggering event is a disruption to the ‘dark’ photosynthetic reactions of the algae endosymbionts, primarily due to a limited availability of CO2 substrate around the Rubisco enzyme (ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase). Paradoxically, this CO2-limiting condition may be enhanced by the modern increase in atmospheric CO2 partial pressure (pCO2). Importantly, the model delivers a new standpoint from which to explain: (i) upper thermal bleaching thresholds; and (ii) the mechanism underpinning endosymbiont shuffling. Overall, the model leaves little doubt as to the diminished stability and functioning (i.e. resilience) of the coral–algae endosymbiosis due to the rising pCO2 and warming trend in the upper ocean surface layer. It is concluded that whole-colony bleaching is the destructive endpoint to a suite of cellular processes that operate near continuously in modern symbiotic corals.

The consideration of 'mutual benefits' and partner cooperation have long been the accepted standpoint from which to draw inference about the onset, maintenance and breakdown of the coral-algae endosymbiosis. In this paper, I review recent research into the climate-induced breakdown of this important symbiosis (namely 'coral bleaching') that challenges the validity of this long-standing belief. Indeed, I introduce a more parsimonious explanation, in which the coral host exerts a 'controlled parasitism' over its algal symbionts that is akin to an enforced domestication arrangement. Far from being pathogenic, a range of well-established cellular processes are reviewed that support the role of the coral host as an active 'farmer' of the energy-rich photoassimilates from its captive symbionts. Importantly, this new paradigm reposes the deleterious bleaching response in terms of an envelope of environmental conditions in which the exploitative and captive measures of the coral host are severely restricted. The ramification of this new paradigm for developing management strategies that may assist the evolution of bleaching resistance in corals is discussed.

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Impairment of the photosynthetic machinery of the algal endosymbiont ("zooxanthellae") is the proximal driver of the thermal breakdown of the coral-algae symbiosis ("coral bleaching"). Yet, the initial site of damage, and early dynamics of the impairment are still not well resolved. In this perspective essay, I consider further a recent hypothesis which proposes an energetic disruption to the carbon-concentrating mechanisms (CCMs) of the coral host, and the resultant onset of CO₂-limitation within the photosynthetic "dark reactions" as a unifying cellular mechanism. The hypothesis identifies the enhanced retention of photosynthetic carbon for zooxanthellae (re)growth following an initial irradiance-driven expulsion event as a strong contributing cause of the energetic disruption. If true, then it implies that the onset of the bleaching syndrome and setting of upper thermal bleaching limits are emergent attributes of the coral symbiosis that are ultimately underpinned by the characteristic growth profile of the intracellular zooxanthellae; which is known to depend not just on temperature, but also external (seawater) nutrient availability and zooxanthellae genotype. Here, I review this proposed bleaching linkage at a variety of observational scales, and find it to be parsimonious with the available evidence. Future experiments are suggested that can more formally test the linkage. If correct, the new cellular model delivers a valuable new perspective to consider the future prospects of the coral symbiosis in an era of rapid environmental change, including: (i) the underpinning mechanics (and biological significance) of observed changes in resident zooxanthellae genotypes, and (ii) the now crucial importance of reef water quality in co-determining thermal bleaching resistance