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Triple-bottom-line outcomes from resource management and conservation, where conservation goals and equity in social outcomes are maximized while overall costs are minimized, remain a highly sought-after ideal. However, despite widespread recognition of the importance that equitable distribution of benefits or costs across society can play in conservation success, little formal theory exists for how to explicitly incorporate equity into conservation planning and prioritization. Here, we develop that theory and implement it for three very different case studies in California (United States), Raja Ampat (Indonesia), and the wider Coral Triangle region (Southeast Asia). We show that equity tends to trade off nonlinearly with the potential to achieve conservation objectives, such that similar conservation outcomes can be possible with greater equity, to a point. However, these case studies also produce a range of trade-off typologies between equity and conservation, depending on how one defines and measures social equity, including direct (linear) and no trade-off. Important gaps remain in our understanding, most notably how equity influences probability of conservation success, in turn affecting the actual ability to achieve conservation objectives. Results here provide an important foundation for moving the science and practice of conservation planning-and broader spatial planning in general-toward more consistently achieving efficient, equitable, and effective outcomes. marine protected areas | environmental justice | marine spatial planning | ecosystem-based management | social-ecological systems

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Real patterns of ecological connectivity are seldom explicitly or systematically accounted for systematic conservation planning, in part because commonly used decision support systems can only capture simplistic notions of connectivity. Conventionally, the surrogates used to represent connectivity in conservation plans have assumed the connection between two sites to be symmetric in strength. In reality, ecological linkages between sites are rarely symmetric and often strongly asymmetric. Here, we develop a novel formulation that enabled us to incorporate asymmetric connectivity into the conservation decision support system Marxan. We illustrate this approach using hypothetical examples of a river catchment and a group of reefs, and then apply it to case studies in the Snowy River catchment and Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that incorporating asymmetric ecological connectivity in systematic reserve design leads to solutions that more effectively capture connectivity patterns, relative to either ignoring connectivity or assuming symmetric connectivity.

Abstract. Large-scale catastrophic events, although rare, lie generally beyond the control of local management and can prevent marine reserves from achieving biodiversity outcomes. We formulate a new conservation planning problem that aims to minimize the probability of missing conservation targets as a result of catastrophic events. To illustrate this approach we formulate and solve the problem of minimizing the impact of large-scale coral bleaching events on a reserve system for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that by considering the threat of catastrophic events as part of the reserve design problem it is possible to substantially improve the likely persistence of conservation features within reserve networks for a negligible increase in cost. In the case of the Great Barrier Reef, a 2% increase in overall reserve cost was enough to improve the long-run performance of our reserve network by .60%. Our results also demonstrate that simply aiming to protect the reefs at lowest risk of catastrophic bleaching does not necessarily lead to the best conservation outcomes, and enormous gains in overall persistence can be made by removing the requirement to represent all bioregions in the reserve network. We provide an explicit and well-defined method that allows the probability of catastrophic disturbances to be included in the site selection problem without creating additional conservation targets or imposing arbitrary presence/absence thresholds on existing data. This research has implications for reserve design in a changing climate.