The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has experienced significant change over the last 50 years. Using a 24 year spatial time series collected by the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research programme, we assessed long-term patterns in the sea ice, upper mixed layer depth (MLD) and phytoplankton productivity. The number of sea ice days steadily declined from the 1980s until a recent reversal that began in 2008. Results show regional differences between the northern and southern regions sampled during regional ship surveys conducted each austral summer. In the southern WAP, upper ocean MLD has shallowed by a factor of 2. Associated with the shallower mixed layer is enhanced phytoplankton carbon fixation. In the north, significant interannual variability resulted in the mixed layer showing no trended change over time and there was no significant increase in the phytoplankton productivity. Associated with the recent increases in sea ice there has been an increase in the photosynthetic efficiency (chlorophyll a-normalized carbon fixation) in the northern and southern regions of the WAP. We hypothesize the increase in sea ice results in increased micronutrient delivery to the continental shelf which in turn leads to enhanced photosynthetic performance.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change’.

The Palmer Deep canyon along the West Antarctic Peninsula is a biological hotspot with abundant phytoplankton and krill supporting Adélie and gentoo penguin rookeries at the canyon head. Nearshore studies have focused on physical mechanisms driving primary production and penguin foraging, but less is known about finer-scale krill distribution and density. We designed two acoustic survey grids paired with conductivity-temperature-depth profiles within adjacent Adélie and gentoo penguin foraging regions near Palmer Station, Antarctica. The grids were sampled from January to March 2019 to assess variability in krill availability and associations with oceanographic properties. Krill density was similar in the two regions, but krill swarms were longer and larger in the gentoo foraging region, which was also less stratified and had lower chlorophyll concentrations. In the inshore zone near penguin colonies, depth-integrated krill density increased from summer to autumn (January-March) independent of chlorophyll concentration, suggesting a life history-driven adult krill migration rather than a resource-driven biomass increase. The daytime depth of krill biomass deepened through the summer and became decoupled from the chlorophyll maximum in March as diel vertical migration magnitude likely increased. Penguins near Palmer Station did not appear to be limited by krill availability during our study, and regional differences in krill depth match the foraging behaviors of the two penguin species. Understanding fine-scale physical forcing and ecological interactions in coastal Antarctic hotspots is critical for predicting how environmental change will impact these ecosystems.

The relationship between absorption at 676 nm normalized to chlorophyll-a, i.e., specific absorption aph*(676), and various optical and environmental properties is examined in extensive data sets from Case I and Case II waters found globally to assess drivers of variability such as pigment packaging. A better understanding of this variability could lead to more accurate estimates of chlorophyll concentrations from in situ optical measurements that may be made autonomously. Values of aph*(676) ranged from 0.00006 to 0.0944 m²/mg Chl a across all sites studied, but converged on median and mean values (n = 563) of 0.0108 and 0.0139 m²/mg Chl a respectively, with no apparent relationship with various optical properties, latitude, coastal or open ocean environment, depth, temperature, salinity, photoadaptation, ecosystem health, or albedo. Relative consistency in aph* across such diverse water types and the full range in chlorophyll concentration suggests a single aph* may be used to estimate chlorophyll concentration from absorption measurements with better accuracy than currently thought.

In coastal West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) waters, large phytoplankton blooms in late austral spring fuel a highly productive marine ecosystem. However, WAP atmospheric and oceanic temperatures are rising, winter sea ice extent and duration are decreasing, and summer phytoplankton biomass in the northern WAP has decreased and shifted toward smaller cells. To better understand these relationships, an Imaging FlowCytobot was used to characterize seasonal (spring to autumn) phytoplankton community composition and cell size during a low (2017–2018) and high (2018–2019) chlorophyll a year in relation to physical drivers (e.g., sea ice and meteoric water) at Palmer Station, Antarctica. A shorter sea ice season with early rapid retreat resulted in low phytoplankton biomass with a low proportion of diatoms (2017–2018), while a longer sea ice season with late protracted retreat resulted in the opposite (2018–2019). Despite these differences, phytoplankton seasonal succession was similar in both years: (1) a large‐celled centric diatom bloom during spring sea ice retreat; (2) a peak summer phase comprised of mixotrophic cryptophytes with increases in light and postbloom organic matter; and (3) a late summer phase comprised of small (< 20 μm) diatoms and mixed flagellates with increases in wind‐driven nutrient resuspension. In addition, cell diameter decreased from November to April with increases in meteoric water in both years. The tight coupling between sea ice, meltwater, and phytoplankton species composition suggests that continued warming in the WAP will affect phytoplankton seasonal dynamics, and subsequently seasonal food web dynamics.

High-resolution optical imaging systems are quickly becoming universal tools to characterize and quantify microbial diversity in marine ecosystems. Automated classification systems such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are often developed to identify species within the immense number of images (e.g., millions per month) collected. The goal of our study was to develop a CNN to classify phytoplankton images collected with an Imaging FlowCytobot for the Palmer Antarctica Long-Term Ecological Research project. A relatively small CNN (~2 million parameters) was developed and trained using a subset of manually identified images, resulting in an overall test accuracy, recall, and f1-score of 93.8, 93.7, and 93.7%, respectively, on a balanced dataset. However, the f1-score dropped to 46.5% when tested on a dataset of 10,269 new images drawn from the natural environment without balancing classes. This decrease is likely due to highly imbalanced class distributions dominated by smaller, less differentiable cells, high intraclass variance, and interclass morphological similarities of cells in naturally occurring phytoplankton assemblages. As a case study to illustrate the value of the model, it was used to predict taxonomic classifications (ranging from genus to class) of phytoplankton at Palmer Station, Antarctica, from late austral spring to early autumn in 2017‐2018 and 2018‐2019. The CNN was generally able to identify important seasonal dynamics such as the shift from large centric diatoms to small pennate diatoms in both years, which is thought to be driven by increases in glacial meltwater from January to March. This shift in particle size distribution has significant implications for the ecology and biogeochemistry of these waters. Moving forward, we hope to further increase the accuracy of our model to better characterize coastal phytoplankton communities threatened by rapidly changing environmental conditions.