The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species’ geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question. Climate change in Antarctica is asymmetric, with cooling in parts of the continent and warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). The Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) is a circumpolar meso-predator exposed to the full range of Antarctic climate and is undergoing dramatic population shifts coincident with climate change. We used true presence-absence data on Adélie penguin breeding colonies to estimate past and future changes in habitat suitability during the chick-rearing period based on historic satellite observations and future climate model projections. During the contemporary period, declining Adélie penguin populations experienced more years with warm sea surface temperature compared to populations that are increasing. Based on this relationship, we project that one-third of current Adélie penguin colonies, representing ~20% of their current population, may be in decline by 2060. However, climate model projections suggest refugia may exist in continental Antarctica beyond 2099, buffering species-wide declines. Climate change impacts on penguins in the Antarctic will likely be highly site specific based on regional climate trends, and a southward contraction in the range of Adélie penguins is likely over the next century.

Climate-driven sympatry may lead to competition for food resources between species. Rapid warming in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is coincident with increasing gentoo penguin and decreasing Adélie penguin populations, suggesting that competition for food may exacerbate the Adélie penguin decline. On fine scales, we tested for foraging competition between these species during the chick-rearing period by comparing their foraging behaviors with the distribution of their prey, Antarctic krill. We detected krill aggregations within the horizontal and vertical foraging ranges of Adélie and gentoo penguins, and found that krill selected for habitats that balance the need to consume food and avoid predation. In overlapping Adélie and gentoo penguin foraging areas, four gentoo penguins switched foraging behavior by foraging at deeper depths, a strategy which limits competition with Adélie penguins. This suggests that climate-driven sympatry does not necessarily result in competitive exclusion of Adélie penguins by gentoo penguins. Contrary to a recent theory, which suggests that increased competition for krill is one of the major drivers of Adélie penguin population declines, we suggest that declines in Adélie penguins along the WAP are more likely due to direct and indirect climate impacts on their life histories.

Due to their global distribution, high biomass and energy content, euphausiids (krill) are important prey for many mid and upper trophic level marine organisms. Understanding drivers of krill habitat is essential for forecasting range shifts, and to better understand the response of krill predators to climate change. We hypothesized that the distribution and abundance of krill species derived from ecosystem surveys in spring/summer relates to geomorphic features, coastal upwelling during the preceding winter, and spring mesoscale oceanographic conditions. To test this hypothesis, we used boosted regression trees with environmental data and ocean model output to quantify the habitat associations of two primary krill species (Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera) in the central California Current Ecosystem from 2002 to 2018. Models confirmed the neritic distribution of T. spinifera and pelagic, outer slope association of E. pacifica (deviance explained ~35%). Distribution of these species were influenced by depth and bottom rugosity; chlorophyll-a concentrations and increased winter upwelling conditions; and spring surface currents and wind stress. Thysanoessa spinifera and E. pacifica abundance responded negatively (positively) to warm (cold) climate events, confirming known relationships. As an independent evaluation of krill models, observations of krill predator (seabirds, marine mammals) distribution indicated they were present within habitats of predicted high krill species abundance. Our framework indicates species-specific habitat relationships for these foundational forage species and their negative response to large-scale climate variations, such as El Niño and marine heatwave conditions. The approach can be easily transferred to other ecosystems or krill species that respond to similar ocean and climate forcing.

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing incurs an annual cost of up to US$25 billion in economic losses, results in substantial losses of aquatic life, and has been linked to human rights violations. Vessel tracking data from the automatic identification system (AIS) are powerful tools for combating IUU, yet AIS transponders can be disabled, reducing its efficacy as a surveillance tool. We present a global dataset of AIS disabling in commercial fisheries, which obscures up to 6% (>4.9 M hours) of vessel activity. Disabling hot spots were located near the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Argentina and West African nations and in the Northwest Pacific, all regions of IUU concern. Disabling was highest near transshipment hot spots and near EEZ boundaries, particularly contested ones. We also found links between disabling and location hiding from competitors and pirates. These inferences on where and why activities are obscured provide valuable information to improve fisheries management.