Ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Embayment have thinned, accelerating the seaward flow of ice sheets upstream over recent decades. This imbalance is caused by an increase in the ocean‐driven melting of the ice shelves. Observations and models show that the ocean heat content reaching the ice shelves is sensitive to the depth of thermocline, which separates the cool, fresh surface waters from warm, salty waters. Yet the processes controlling the variability of thermocline depth remain poorly constrained. Here we quantify the oceanic conditions and ocean‐driven melting of Cosgrove, Pine Island Glacier (PIG), Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Embayment from 1991 to 2014 using a general circulation model. Ice‐shelf melting is coupled to variability in the wind field and the sea‐ice motions over the continental shelf break and associated onshore advection of warm waters in deep troughs. The layer of warm, salty waters at the calving front of PIG and Thwaites is thicker in austral spring (June–October) than in austral summer (December–March), whereas the seasonal cycle at the calving front of Dotson is reversed. Furthermore, the ocean‐driven melting in PIG is enhanced by an asymmetric response to changes in ocean heat transport anomalies at the continental shelf break: melting responds more rapidly to increases in ocean heat transport than to decreases. This asymmetry is caused by the inland deepening of bathymetry and the glacial meltwater circulation around the ice shelf.

Assessment of ocean‐forced ice sheet loss requires that ocean models be able to represent sub‐ice shelf melt rates. However, spatial accuracy of modeled melt is not well investigated, and neither is the level of accuracy required to assess ice sheet loss. Focusing on a fast‐thinning region of West Antarctica, we calculate spatially resolved ice‐shelf melt from satellite altimetry and compare against results from an ocean model with varying representations of cavity geometry and ocean physics. Then, we use an ice‐flow model to assess the impact of the results on grounded ice. We find that a number of factors influence model‐data agreement of melt rates, with bathymetry being the leading factor; but this agreement is only important in isolated regions under the ice shelves, such as shear margins and grounding lines. To improve ice sheet forecasts, both modeling and observations of ice‐ocean interactions must be improved in these critical regions.

Ice shelves play a vital role in regulating loss of grounded ice and in supplying freshwater to coastal seas. However, melt variability within ice shelves is poorly constrained and may be instrumental in driving ice shelf imbalance and collapse. High‐resolution altimetry measurements from 2010 to 2016 show that Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS), West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focused along a single 5 km‐wide and 60 km‐long channel extending from the ice shelf's grounding zone to its calving front. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel will melt through, and the ice shelf collapse, within 40–50 years, almost two centuries before collapse is projected from the average thinning rate. Our findings provide evidence of basal melt‐driven sub‐ice shelf channel formation and its potential for accelerating the weakening of ice shelves.

Freshwater produced by the surface melting of ice sheets is commonly discharged into ocean fjords from the bottom of deep fjord-terminating glaciers. The discharge of the freshwater forms upwelling plumes in front of the glacier calving face. This study simulates the meltwater plumes emanated into an unstratified environment using a nonhydrostatic ocean model with an unstructured mesh and subgrid-scale mixing calibrated by comparison to established plume theory. The presence of an ice face reduces the entrainment of seawater into the meltwater plumes, so the plumes remain attached to the ice front, in contrast to previous simple models. Ice melting increases with height above the discharge, also in contrast to some simple models, and the authors speculate that this ''overcutting'' may contribute to the tendency of icebergs to topple inwards toward the ice face upon calving. The overall melt rate is found to increase with discharge flux only up to a critical value, which depends on the channel size. The melt rate is not a simple function of the subglacial discharge flux, as assumed by many previous studies. For a given discharge flux, the geometry of the plume source also significantly affects the melting, with higher melt rates obtained for a thinner, wider source. In a wider channel, two plumes are emanated near the source and these plumes eventually coalesce. Such merged meltwater plumes ascend faster and increase the maximum melt rate near the center of the channel. The melt rate per unit discharge decreases as the subglacial system becomes more channelized.

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Rapid ice loss is occurring in the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This ice loss is assumed to be a long‐term response to oceanographic forcing, but ocean conditions in the Amundsen Sea are unknown prior to 1994. Here we present a modeling study of Amundsen Sea conditions from 1920 to 2013, using an ensemble of ice‐ocean simulations forced by climate model experiments. We find that during the early twentieth century, the Amundsen Sea likely experienced more sustained cool periods than at present. Warm periods become more dominant over the simulations (mean trend 0.33°C/century) causing an increase in ice shelf melting. The warming is likely driven by an eastward wind trend over the continental shelf break that is partly anthropogenically forced. Our simulations suggest that the Amundsen Sea responded to historical greenhouse gas forcing, and that future changes in emissions are also likely to affect the region.

Diffusive convection-favorable thermohaline staircases are observed directly beneath George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctica. A thermohaline staircase is one of the most pronounced manifestations of double-diffusive convection. Cooling and freshening of the ocean by melting ice produces cool, freshwater above the warmer, saltier water, the water mass distribution favorable to a type of double-diffusive convection known as diffusive convection. While the vertical distribution of water masses can be susceptible to diffusive convection, none of the observations beneath ice shelves so far have shown signals of this process and its effect on melting ice shelves is uncertain. The melt rate of ice shelves is commonly estimated using a parameterization based on a three-equation model, which assumes a fully developed, unstratified turbulent flow over hydraulically smooth surfaces. These prerequisites are clearly not met in the presence of a thermohaline staircase. The basal melt rate is estimated by applying an existing heat flux parameterization for diffusive convection in conjunction with the measurements of oceanic conditions at one site beneath George VI Ice Shelf. These estimates yield a possible range of melt rates between 0.1 and 1.3 m yr 21, where the observed melt rate of this site is ;1.4 m yr 21. Limitations of the formulation and implications of diffusive convection beneath ice shelves are discussed.

Variability in the heat delivery by Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is responsible for modulating the basal melting of the Amundsen Sea ice shelves. However, the mechanisms controlling the CDW inflow to the region’s continental shelf remain little understood. Here, a high-resolution regional model is used to assess the processes governing heat delivery to the Amundsen Sea. The key mechanisms are identified by decomposing CDW temperature variability into two components associated with 1) changes in the depth of isopycnals [heave (HVE)], and 2) changes in the temperature of isopycnals [water mass property changes (WMP)]. In the Dotson–Getz trough, CDW temperature variability is primarily associated with WMP. The deeper thermocline and shallower shelf break hinder CDW access to that trough, and CDW inflow is regulated by the uplift of isopycnals at the shelf break—which is itself controlled by wind-driven variations in the speed of an undercurrent flowing eastward along the continental slope. In contrast, CDW temperature variability in the Pine Island–Thwaites trough is mainly linked to HVE. The shallower thermocline and deeper shelf break there permit CDW to persistently access the continental shelf. CDW temperature in the area responds to wind-driven modulation of the water mass on-shelf volume by changes in the rate of inflow across the shelf break and in Ekman pumping-induced vertical displacement of isopycnals within the shelf. The western and eastern Amundsen Sea thus represent distinct regimes, in which wind forcing governs CDW-mediated heat delivery via different dynamics.