Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations, taxonomic groups and/or biological responses. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a meta-database of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81-83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. Of the species responding to climate change, rates of distribution shifts were, on average, consistent with those required to track ocean surface temperature changes. Conversely, we did not find a relationship between regional shifts in spring phenology and the seasonality of temperature. Rates of observed shifts in species\u27 distributions and phenology are comparable to, or greater, than those for terrestrial systems

In 1990, Andrew Bakun proposed that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations would force intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in eastern boundary current systems that contribute substantial services to society. Because there is considerable disagreement about whether contemporary wind trends support Bakun's hypothesis, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature on upwelling-favorable wind intensification. The preponderance of published analyses suggests that winds have intensified in the California, Benguela, and Humboldt upwelling systems and weakened in the Iberian system over time scales ranging up to 60 years; wind change is equivocal in the Canary system. Stronger intensification signals are observed at higher latitudes, consistent with the warming pattern associated with climate change. Overall, reported changes in coastal winds, although subtle and spatially variable, support Bakun's hypothesis of upwelling intensification in eastern boundary current systems.

Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species.

Changes in variance are infrequently examined in climate change ecology. We tested the hypothesis that recent high variability in demographic attributes of salmon and seabirds off California is related to increasing variability in remote, large-scale forcing in the North Pacific operating through changes in local food webs. Linear, indirect numerical responses between krill (primarily Thysanoessa spinifera) and juvenile rockfish abundance (catch per unit effort (CPUE)) explained >80% of the recent variability in the demography of these pelagic predators. We found no relationships between krill and regional upwelling, though a strong connection to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index was established. Variance in NPGO and related central Pacific warming index increased after 1985, whereas variance in the canonical ENSO and Pacific Decadal Oscillation did not change. Anthropogenic global warming or natural climate variability may explain recent intensification of the NPGO and its increasing ecological significance. Assessing non-stationarity in atmospheric-environmental interactions and placing greater emphasis on documenting changes in variance of bio-physical systems will enable insight into complex climate-marine ecosystem dynamics.

Simple SummaryMaintaining a high standard of animal welfare is essential in zoos, and methods of animal welfare assessment should aim to evaluate positive as well as negative states. The indicators that are useful in assessing these are discussed as there is huge variability in the available information about the natural biology for some zoo species. Wild baselines are not always the most accurate indicator of what is right for an animal in captivity, which makes the identification of factors to include within species-specific welfare assessment even more challenging. There is no “one size fits all” welfare strategy as it should account for the range of biological requirements and needs, which it is not possible to define for some zoo species. The different approaches for welfare assessment are reviewed, including the development of the Animal Welfare Assessment Grid which offers an evidence-based tool for continual welfare assessment, using technology where appropriate, to facilitate decision making and lead to improvements in the animals’ quality of life.AbstractZoos are required to maintain a high standard of animal welfare, and this can be assessed using a combination of resource-based and animal-based indices usually divided into behavioural indicators, physiological indicators and clinical/pathological signs. Modern animal welfare assessments should aim to encompass positive affective states and the indicators that are useful in assessing these are discussed. When developing factors to be scored for each species, there is huge variability in the available information about the natural biology for some zoo species and even less information concerning those animals in captivity. Wild baselines are not always the most accurate indicator of what is right for an animal in captivity, which makes the identification of factors to include within species-specific welfare assessment even more challenging. When planning a welfare strategy for any species, it is important that the full range of their biological requirements and needs are considered, but this can be challenging for some zoo species and it is not possible to define a “one size fits all” welfare strategy. The different approaches for welfare assessment are reviewed, including the development of the Animal Welfare Assessment Grid which offers an evidence-based tool for continual welfare assessment, using technology where appropriate, to facilitate decision making and lead to improvements in the animals’ quality of life.

The region of the eastern North Pacific coastline dominated by the California Current was surveyed annually from [2001][2002][2003] to examine (1) benthic macro-invertebrate and algal populations, (2) the magnitude and patterns of key environmental variables, and (3) how dynamic populations and communities of macroalgae and invertebrates respond to spatial differences in nearshore geomorphology, wave dynamics, and oceanography of the coastal shelf. We used a highly replicated spatially nested sampling design consisting of 144 shore segments (bedrock platforms longer than 50 m) with three replicate segments per site (,1 km), three sites per area (,10 km), and sixteen areas (.10 km) grouped into six domains (hundreds of kilometers). Results suggest that (1) low zone diversity was higher at northern latitudes when measured at segment, site, and area scales, but at domain scales there were more species at southern latitudes; (2) community structure showed high fidelity to geographic location with community similarity inversely related to separation distance, and the only regional scale biological discontinuity in community structure was centered near Pt. Conception; and (3) wave runup was the most significant physical parameter affecting overall community structure, however, tidal range, precipitation, air and water temperature, upwelling, salinity, and sand were significant mechanisms forcing differences in community structure within the region.Understanding the underlying causes of gradients of diversity has been a long-standing focus of the ecological community. The problem is complex and has been beset by controversy, yet great strides have been made (Huston 1995;Rosenzweig 1995;Hubbell 2001). A recent focus has been on the relative contributions of local factors, dispersal, and scale-dependent regional factors that influence regional species pools (Ricklefs 2004;Witman et al. 2004;Russell et al. 2006). The increased focus on largescale dynamics, however, has exposed a major shortcoming in many of the datasets that have been used to evaluate diversity hypotheses: the level of detail and resolution is

Based in part on a symposium held at the first World Seabird Conference in September, 2010 in Victoria, BC, Canada, we present a Theme Section (TS) on the topic of seabirds and climate change. We introduce this TS with a meta-analysis of key attributes of the current seabird−climate literature, based on 108 publications representing almost 3000 seabird− climate associations (mostly correlations) published up to 2011. Using the papers in this TS and our metaanalysis, a brief roadmap for the future of seabird−climate change research is presented. Seabird studies have contributed substantially to the literature on marine climate effects. To improve our understanding of climate change effects on seabirds at the global scale, however, additional lowlatitude, mechanistic, and 'end-to-end' modeling studies, including integration of climatic, oceanographic, food web, and population dynamics models, should be conducted. This approach will enhance our understanding of the relationship between climate and population dynamics, and facilitate seabird conservation in a changing world.

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