In 1990, Andrew Bakun proposed that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations would force intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in eastern boundary current systems that contribute substantial services to society. Because there is considerable disagreement about whether contemporary wind trends support Bakun's hypothesis, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature on upwelling-favorable wind intensification. The preponderance of published analyses suggests that winds have intensified in the California, Benguela, and Humboldt upwelling systems and weakened in the Iberian system over time scales ranging up to 60 years; wind change is equivocal in the Canary system. Stronger intensification signals are observed at higher latitudes, consistent with the warming pattern associated with climate change. Overall, reported changes in coastal winds, although subtle and spatially variable, support Bakun's hypothesis of upwelling intensification in eastern boundary current systems.

Ecosystem productivity in coastal ocean upwelling systems is threatened by climate change. Increases in spring and summer upwelling intensity, and associated increases in the rate of offshore advection, are expected. While this could counter effects of habitat warming, it could also lead to more frequent hypoxic events and lower densities of suitable-sized food particles for fish larvae. With upwelling intensification, ocean acidity will rise, affecting organisms with carbonate structures. Regardless of changes in upwelling, near-surface stratification, turbulent diffusion rates, source water origins, and perhaps thermocline depths associated with large-scale climate episodes (ENSO) maybe affected. Major impacts on pelagic fish resources appear unlikely unless couples with overfishing, although changes toward more subtropical community composition are likely. Marine mammals and seabirds that are tied to sparsely distributed nesting or resting grounds could experience difficulties in obtaining prey resources, or adaptively respond by moving to more favorable biogeographic provinces.

About 62,000 dead or dying common murres (Uria aalge), the trophically dominant fish-eating seabird of the North Pacific, washed ashore between summer 2015 and spring 2016 on beaches from California to Alaska. Most birds were severely emaciated and, so far, no evidence for anything other than starvation was found to explain this mass mortality. Threequarters of murres were found in the Gulf of Alaska and the remainder along the West Coast. Studies show that only a fraction of birds that die at sea typically wash ashore, and we estimate that total mortality approached 1 million birds. About two-thirds of murres killed were adults, a substantial blow to breeding populations. Additionally, 22 complete reproductive failures were observed at multiple colonies region-wide during (2015) and after (2016-2017) the mass mortality event. Die-offs and breeding failures occur sporadically in murres, but the magnitude, duration and spatial extent of this die-off, associated with multi-colony and multi-year reproductive failures, is unprecedented and astonishing. These events cooccurred with the most powerful marine heatwave on record that persisted through 2014-2016 and created an enormous volume of ocean water (the "Blob") from California to Alaska with temperatures that exceeded average by 2-3 standard deviations. Other studies PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0226087 January 15, 2020 1 / 32 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Piatt JF, Parrish JK, Renner HM, Schoen SK, Jones TT, Arimitsu ML, et al. (2020) Extreme mortality and reproductive failure of common murres resulting from the northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016. PLoS ONE 15(1):indicate that this prolonged heatwave reduced phytoplankton biomass and restructured zooplankton communities in favor of lower-calorie species, while it simultaneously increased metabolically driven food demands of ectothermic forage fish. In response, forage fish quality and quantity diminished. Similarly, large ectothermic groundfish were thought to have increased their demand for forage fish, resulting in greater top-predator demands for diminished forage fish resources. We hypothesize that these bottom-up and top-down forces created an "ectothermic vise" on forage species leading to their system-wide scarcity and resulting in mass mortality of murres and many other fish, bird and mammal species in the region during 2014-2017.

Upwelling is critical to the biological production, acidification, and deoxygenation of the ocean's major eastern boundary current ecosystems. A leading conceptual hypothesis projects that the winds that induce coastal upwelling will intensify in response to increased land‐sea temperature differences associated with anthropogenic global warming. We examine this hypothesis using an ensemble of coupled, ocean‐atmosphere models and find limited evidence for intensification of upwelling‐favorable winds or atmospheric pressure gradients in response to increasing land‐sea temperature differences. However, our analyses reveal consistent latitudinal and seasonal dependencies of projected changes in wind intensity associated with poleward migration of major atmospheric high‐pressure cells. Summertime winds near poleward boundaries of climatological upwelling zones are projected to intensify, while winds near equatorward boundaries are projected to weaken. Developing a better understanding of future changes in upwelling winds is essential to identifying portions of the oceans susceptible to increased hypoxia, ocean acidification, and eutrophication under climate change.

From January 2014 to August 2016, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the Washington, Oregon, and California coasts were significantly warmer than usual, reaching a maximum SST anomaly of 6.2°C off Southern California. This marine heat wave occurred alongside the Gulf of Alaska marine heat wave and resulted in major disturbances in the California Current ecosystem and massive economic impacts. Here we use satellite and blended reanalysis products to report the magnitude, extent, duration, and evolution of SSTs and wind stress anomalies along the West Coast of the continental United States during this event. Nearshore SST anomalies along the entire coast were persistent during the marine heat wave, and only abated seasonally, during spring upwelling‐favorable wind stress. The coastal marine heat wave weakened in July 2016 and disappeared by September 2016.

The IPCC AR5 provided an overview of the likely effects of climate change on Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS), stimulating increased interest in research examining the issue. We use these recent studies to develop a new synthesis describing climate change impacts on EBUS. We find that model and observational data suggest coastal upwelling-favorable winds in poleward portions of EBUS have intensified and will continue to do so in the future. Although evidence is weak in data that are presently available, future projections show that this pattern might be driven by changes in the positioning of the oceanic high-pressure systems rather than by deepening of the continental low-pressure systems, as previously proposed. There is low confidence regarding the future effects of climate change on coastal temperatures and biogeochemistry due to uncertainty in the countervailing responses to increasing upwelling and coastal warming, the latter of which could increase thermal stratification and render upwelling less effective in lifting nutrient-rich deep waters into the photic zone. Although predictions of ecosystem responses are uncertain, EBUS experience considerable natural variability and may be inherently resilient. However, multi-trophic level, end-to-end (i.e., "winds to whales") studies are needed to resolve the resilience of EBUS to climate change, especially their response to long-term trends or extremes that exceed pre-industrial ranges.

[1] Alongshore wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST) from coastal National Data Buoy Center buoys are used to study the variability of wind-driven coastal upwelling from 1982 to 2008. A long-term increase in upwelling is observed in central California (35°N-39°N) with stronger upwelling-favorable winds, colder water, and more frequent occurrences of upwelling days during the upwelling season (March-July). Further, a longer upwelling season is observed in the same region, starting earlier in the spring and persisting later in the fall. These interannual changes in upwelling strength and seasonal duration are investigated in this study. Changes in alongshore wind (forcing of upwelling) are poorly correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but the Northern Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation correlate with the geostrophic upwelling-favorable winds in the region. However, changes in SST (an upwelling response) are correlated with both changes in wind (upwelling forcing) and the climate indices. Although this short record cannot differentiate between multidecadal cycles and persistent trends, this data-based result does corroborate model-based projections of increased upwelling in this region due to global climate change. This increase in upwelling is understood to be a response to the strengthening of large-scale pressure gradient fields partially due to global-scale climate change. Farther north and farther south in California, other processes also have a significant influence on coastal conditions, such that the tendency for increased upwelling is not evident in the same way.

During 2014–2016, severe marine heatwaves in the northeast Pacific triggered well-documented disturbances including mass mortalities, harmful algal blooms, and declines in subtidal kelp beds. However, less attention has been directed towards understanding how changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and alongshore currents during this period influenced the geographic distribution of coastal taxa. Here, we examine these effects in northern California, USA, with a focus on the region between Point Reyes and Point Arena. This region represents an important biogeographic transition zone that lies <150 km north of Monterey Bay, California, where numerous southern species have historically reached their northern (poleward) range limits. We report substantial changes in geographic distributions and/or abundances across a diverse suite of 67 southern species, including an unprecedented number of poleward range extensions (37) and striking increases in the recruitment of owl limpets (Lottia gigantea) and volcano barnacles (Tetraclita rubescens). These ecological responses likely arose through the combined effects of extreme SST, periods of anomalous poleward flow, and the unusually long duration of heatwave events. Prolonged marine heatwaves and enhanced poleward dispersal may play an important role in longer-term shifts in the composition of coastal communities in northern California and other biogeographic transition zones.