Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2‐D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt‐dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite‐derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

Seasonally frozen ground (SFG) and permafrost underlay approximately half of the land surface in the Northern Hemisphere. It is anticipated that climate warming will degrade both types of frozen ground, altering groundwater discharge to streams. While the effects of permafrost degradation on groundwater discharge have been analyzed, quantification of how groundwater discharge in degrading permafrost differs from that in SFG is lacking. This study simulates coupled groundwater and heat transport under freeze‐thaw conditions for four representative hillslopes underlain by either continuous permafrost or SFG and compares groundwater discharge outputs under projected warming scenarios over decadal scales. Model results show that without warming there is more groundwater discharge in hillslopes with SFG than permafrost. After a century of warming, groundwater discharge increases for both kinds of frozen ground, but permafrost experiences a larger increase than SFG. These findings have implications for aquatic ecosystems and prioritizing water resource planning.

Headwater catchments have a direct impact on the water resources of downstream lowland regions as they supply freshwater in the form of surface runoff and discharging groundwater. Often, these mountainous catchments contain expansive permafrost that may alter the natural topographically controlled groundwater flow system. As permafrost could degrade with climate change, it is imperative to understand the effect of permafrost on groundwater flow in headwater catchments. This study characterizes groundwater flow in mountainous headwater catchments and evaluates the effect of permafrost in the context of climate change on groundwater movement using a three-dimensional, finite element, hydrogeologic model. The model is applied to a representative headwater catchment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Results from the model simulations indicate that groundwater contributes significantly to streams in the form of baseflow and the majority of groundwater flow is from the shallow aquifer above the permafrost, disrupting the typical topographically controlled flow pattern observed in most permafrost-free headwater catchments. Under a warming scenario where mean annual surface temperature is increased by 28C, reducing the areal extent of permafrost in the catchment, groundwater contribution to streamflow may increase three-fold. These findings suggest that, in headwater catchments, permafrost has a large influence on groundwater flow and stream discharge. Increased annual air temperatures may increase groundwater discharge to streams, which has implications for ecosystem health and the long-term availability of water resources to downstream regions.

Upland permafrost regions occupy approximately one third of the Arctic landscape. In upland regions, hydrologic fluxes are influenced by water tracks, curvilinear features on hillslopes that preferentially fill with and route water in response to snowmelt and rainfall when the soil above continuous permafrost thaws in the summer. As continued warming of the Arctic may alter hydrologic cycling leading to increased frequency of extreme hydrologic events like drought and flooding as well as modification of biogeochemical cycling, it is imperative to untangle the interplay between precipitation, runoff, and subsurface flow as water is routed from upland Arctic regions to the Arctic Ocean. This study quantifies how ground surface temperatures affect groundwater discharge from hillslopes with water tracks in the upland Arctic by employing a three‐dimensional, physically based subsurface flow model with variable saturation and freeze and thaw capabilities that is calibrated to field measurements from the Upper Kuparuk River watershed on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. Model analysis indicates that higher ground surface temperatures along water track hillslopes promote increases in groundwater discharge where water tracks act as conduits for large‐recharge events and continue to discharge groundwater into the autumn after the adjacent hillslope has frozen. Simulating the conditions that distinguish water tracks from their hillslope watersheds changes subsurface water storage and ground thermal responses but does not alter the total magnitude of groundwater discharge outside of parameter uncertainty. These findings suggest that water tracks play a complex and critical role in hydrologic cycles of the upland Arctic.

Warming in the Arctic is occurring at twice the rate of the global average, resulting in permafrost thaw and a restructuring of the Arctic hydrologic cycle as indicated by increased stream discharge during low-flow periods. In these cold regions, permafrost thaw is postulated to increase low-flow discharge, or baseflow, through either: