Potential mechanistic causes of increased baseflow across northern Eurasia catchments underlain by permafrost

Evans, Sarah G.; Yokeley, B.; Stephens, Connor; Brewer, Benjamin

doi:10.1002/hyp.13759

Cited by 27 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…Complete permafrost loss has the potential to influence subsurface fluxes and flowpaths at intermediate to basin-wide scales by altering the hydrogeologic framework that controls groundwater flow, groundwater storage, and hydrologic connectivity among inland waters, shallow groundwater, and deep sub-permafrost groundwater. Widespread increases in streamflow minimums and river baseflow across the Arcticboreal region suggest a multi-decadal shift from dominance of surface-water input toward increased groundwater input from a combination of connective supra-permafrost flow and sub-permafrost flow through open taliks (Smith et al, 2007;Walvoord and Striegl, 2007;Evans et al, 2020). This is consistent with the paradigm that proportionally more water is being recharged, stored, and circulated through deep subsurface pathways opened by extensive permafrost loss (Walvoord et al, 2012;Kurylyk and Walvoord, 2021).…”

Section: Response To Complete Permafrost Losssupporting

confidence: 69%

Complex Vulnerabilities of the Water and Aquatic Carbon Cycles to Permafrost Thaw

Walvoord

Striegl

2021

Front. Clim.

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The spatial distribution and depth of permafrost are changing in response to warming and landscape disturbance across northern Arctic and boreal regions. This alters the infiltration, flow, surface and subsurface distribution, and hydrologic connectivity of inland waters. Such changes in the water cycle consequently alter the source, transport, and biogeochemical cycling of aquatic carbon (C), its role in the production and emission of greenhouse gases, and C delivery to inland waters and the Arctic Ocean. Responses to permafrost thaw across heterogeneous boreal landscapes will be neither spatially uniform nor synchronous, thus giving rise to expressions of low to medium confidence in predicting hydrologic and aquatic C response despite very high confidence in projections of widespread near-surface permafrost disappearance as described in the 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: Polar Regions. Here, we describe the state of the science regarding mechanisms and factors that influence aquatic C and hydrologic responses to permafrost thaw. Through synthesis of recent topical field and modeling studies and evaluation of influential landscape characteristics, we present a framework for assessing vulnerabilities of northern permafrost landscapes to specific modes of thaw affecting local to regional hydrology and aquatic C biogeochemistry and transport. Lastly, we discuss scaling challenges relevant to model prediction of these impacts in heterogeneous permafrost landscapes.

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Section: Response To Complete Permafrost Losssupporting

confidence: 69%

Complex Vulnerabilities of the Water and Aquatic Carbon Cycles to Permafrost Thaw

Walvoord

Striegl

2021

Front. Clim.

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“…Cross-correlation results demonstrated that lags between ∆ 13 C chronology and snowmelt season temperature and winter precipitation were 2 and 3 years, respectively (Table 3). Thawing permafrost and deepening active layer (the soil layer above the permafrost that thaws during the summer and refreezes during the winter) may raise, increasing soil filtration, deeper baseflow path, and increasing retention time, which strongly affect the catchment hydrology [97,98]. In our study area, the increases in baseflow are likely related to enhanced groundwater storage and winter groundwater discharge caused by permafrost thaw and are potentially also due to increased wet season rainfall.…”

Section: Potential Links Between Tree-ring Carbon Isotopes and Melting Seasonmentioning

confidence: 89%

Understanding the Representativeness of Tree Rings and Their Carbon Isotopes in Characterizing the Climate Signal of Tajikistan

Fan

Shang

et al. 2021

Forests

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The juniper tree forest is a critical component of the carbon, water, and energy cycles of Tajikistan. However, to date, long-term information about tree-ring isotopes is limited in this region. Here, we developed tree-ring width (TRW) and tree-ring 13C chronologies for juniper trees (Juniperus seravschanica (Juniperus excelsa subsp.polycarpos (K. Koch) Takht.) and Juniperus turkestanica (Juniperus pseudosabina Fisch. & C. A. Mey)) and investigated their dendroclimatic signals in the northwest of the Pamir-Alay (NWPA) mountains in Tajikistan. Tree-ring ∆13C and TRW of juniper presented different sensitivities to monthly precipitation. Moreover, ∆13C in juniper showed consistently significant relationships with climatic factors in larger seasonal windows than TRW did. Dendroclimatological analysis demonstrates that precipitation has significant effects on tree growth and isotope enrichment. Late summer to early winter temperature is one limiting factor for the TRW chronologies, but previous spring, summer, and autumn temperature and precipitation from the previous July to the current May were the dominant climatic factors accounting for inter-annual variations in the ∆13C chronologies. This verified that the multi tree-ring parameters of juniper in Tajikistan are a promising tool for investigating inter-annual climate variations. Furthermore, the stable carbon isotopes of tree rings have proven to be powerful evidence of climatic signals. The moisture-sensitive tree-ring isotope provides opportunities for complex investigations of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and timing of seasonal rainfall. Our results highlight the need for more detailed studies of tree growth responses to changing climate and tree-ring isotopes to understand source water variations (especially baseflow) of the juniper tree forest.

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“…These changes not only increase the available storage and flux of liquid groundwater, but also enhance the potential for exchange of water between aquifers and surface water bodies (blue lines, Fig. 1; Evans et al, 2020;Lemieux et al, 2020) and lead to shifts in vegetation (Christensen et al, 2004).…”

Section: Altered Surface Hydrologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Invited perspective: What lies beneath a changing Arctic?

McKenzie

Kurylyk²,

Walvoord³

et al. 2021

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. As permafrost thaws in the Arctic, new subsurface pathways open for the transport of groundwater, energy, and solutes. We identify different ways that these subsurface changes are driving observed surface consequences, including the potential for increased contaminant transport, modification to water resources, and enhanced rates of infrastructure (e.g. buildings and roads) damage. Further, as permafrost thaws it allows groundwater to transport carbon, nutrients, and other dissolved constituents from terrestrial to aquatic environments via progressively deeper subsurface flow paths. Cryohydrogeology, the study of groundwater in cold regions, should be included in northern research initiatives to account for this hidden catalyst of environmental and societal change.

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Potential mechanistic causes of increased baseflow across northern Eurasia catchments underlain by permafrost

Cited by 27 publications

References 75 publications

Complex Vulnerabilities of the Water and Aquatic Carbon Cycles to Permafrost Thaw

Complex Vulnerabilities of the Water and Aquatic Carbon Cycles to Permafrost Thaw

Understanding the Representativeness of Tree Rings and Their Carbon Isotopes in Characterizing the Climate Signal of Tajikistan

Invited perspective: What lies beneath a changing Arctic?

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