We develop a theory of change for payments for environmental services (PES) to review their imminent strengths and weaknesses in light of a growing body of impact evaluation studies. We show that PES are probably at least as environmentally additional as other conservation tools, based on the limited evidence. The original vision of PES as being direct, flexible, and potentially effective remains valid, but PES design and implementation have to be upgraded in their economic functioning to better realize this potential. Adverse self-selection, inadequate administrative targeting, and ill-enforced conditionality constitute three key obstacles that may considerably hamper PES success. Policies such as spatial targeting to service density, threat and cost levels, and payment differentiation can alleviate the design challenges. PES site selection needs to further move into high-threat areas. Making adequate PES design choices also requires the political will to boost environmental effects. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Resource Economics, Volume 12 is October 5, 2020. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
Much uncertainty persists about how the coronavirus (COVID-19) and its derived crisis effects will impact both the economy and forests. Here we conceptualize a recursive model where an initial COVID-19 supply-side shock hits first the Global North that, mediated by country-specific epidemic management strategies and other (fiscal, monetary, trade) policy responses feeds through to financial markets and the real economy. Analytically we distinguish two stylized scenarios: an optimistic V-shaped recovery where effective policy responses render most economic damages transitory, versus a pessimistic pathway of economic depression, where short-run pandemic impacts are dwarfed by the subsequent economic breakdown. Economic impacts are transitioned from the global North to the South through trade, tourism, remittances and investment/capital flows. As for impacts on tropical forests, we compare the effects of past economic crises to early indicators for incipient trends. We find national income and commodity price effects to be torn between three forces: a contractive-inflationary supply-side shock, deflationary pandemic demand-side effects, and expansive-inflationary monetary and fiscal policy responses. We discuss how global forest outcomes will depend on how these macroeconomic battles are resolved, but also on geographical differences in deforestation dynamics. Reviewing recent fire and deforestation alerts data, as well as annual tree-cover loss data, we find that deforestation-curbing and -enhancing factors so far just about neutralized each other. Yet, country impacts vary greatly. Changing macroeconomic scenarios, such as fading out of huge economic stimulus packages, could change the picture significantly, in line with what our model predicts.
Many global cities experience temperature differences on a micro-scale across urban areas due to Urban Heat Islands, revealing deeper climate injustice as many socially and economically marginalized communities are more likely to live in warmer neighborhoods. These areas often have less access to cooling features, like green spaces, which improve climatic conditions. Many local governments lag behind in recognizing the unequal vulnerability of certain populations or taking steps to mitigate injustices related to green space planning. We created and tested a Heat Injustice Scale model to explore how different areas of the city face spatial disparities in heat vulnerability and heat resilience as a result of green space planning. Drawing on critical urban theory and environmental justice, we seek to uncover the processes of neoliberalism and social exclusion that drive spatial heat injustices, and explore how resident perceptions of right to the city and climate resilience align with the reality of climate change. The Scale incorporates GIS data, ground-truthing surveys, and stakeholder perception-based mapping, a novel approach to measure climate resilience and mechanisms of heat injustice. Findings from a preliminary study in Antwerp, Belgium indicate an unequal distribution of green spaces according to size, proximity, and quality; but moreover, revealed the reality that local residents in all districts -particularly those with lower social capital --are systematically disadvantaged by and dissatisfied with municipal green space planning. Through future research, we hope to provide an interactive, participatory platform for residents and city planners that will illustrate areas of heat vulnerability and resilience in the city utilizing the Heat Injustice Scale, and incorporate resident narratives on accessibility to cooling features to highlight heat-related planning issues.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.