Resilient landscapes to prevent catastrophic forest fires: Socioeconomic insights towards a new paradigm

Wunder, Sven; Calkin, Dave; Charlton, Val; Feder, Sarah; Arano, Inazio Martínez de; Moore, Peter F.; Silva, Francisco Rodríguez y; Tacconi, Luca; Vega‐García, Cristina

doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102458

Cited by 65 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Landscape managers and policymakers are increasingly advocating for a paradigm shift towards coexisting with fire [12,66,67] by creating resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and safe and efficient fire suppression [66][67][68]. Consistent with these goals, the European Union approved the Green Deal strategy for building a changing climateresilient society and natural ecosystems while preventing the adverse effects of weatherdriven unprecedented fires is a core concern in the Mediterranean areas [69].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Still, the recent rapid fuels buildup combined with changing climate has catalyzed a new fire regime with an extended long-tail distribution that includes extreme events not observed in the historical record [62,71]. Given that the main drivers of extreme fire events are only going to accelerate in the future, a paradigm shift to a proactive response will be needed to help predict future fire disasters and design a sustainable wildfire risk reduction plan [12,66]. This study provides the foundation for risk planning and designing mitigation strategies that include fuel management, suppression strategies, and additional long-term land management policies to reverse recent trends in fuels.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Wildfire Exposure to Communities and Protected Areas in Portugal

Alcasena

Ager

Page³

et al. 2021

Fire

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During the 2017 wildfire season in Portugal, unprecedented episodes burned 6% of the country’s area and underscored the need for a long-term comprehensive solution to mitigate future wildfire disasters. In this study, we built and calibrated a national-scale fire simulation system including the underlying fuels and weather data and used the system to quantify wildfire exposure to communities and natural areas. We simulated 10,000 fire season replicates under extreme weather to generate 1.6 million large wildfire perimeters and estimate annual burn probability and fire intensity at 100 m pixel resolution. These outputs were used to estimate wildfire exposure to buildings and natural areas. The results showed a fire exposure of 10,394 structures per year and that 30% of communities accounted for 82% of the total. The predicted burned area in natural sites was 18,257 ha yr−1, of which 9.8% was protected land where fuel management is not permitted. The main burn probability hotspots were in central and northern regions. We highlighted vital priorities to safeguard the most vulnerable communities and promote landscape management programs at the national level. The results can be useful to inform Portugal’s new national plan under implementation, where decision-making is based on a probabilistic methodology. The core strategies include protecting people and infrastructure and wildfire management. Finally, we discuss the next steps necessary to improve and operationalize the framework developed here. The wildfire simulation modeling approach presented in this study is extensible to other fire-prone Mediterranean regions where predicting catastrophic fires can help anticipate future disasters.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Wildfire Exposure to Communities and Protected Areas in Portugal

Alcasena

Ager

Page³

et al. 2021

Fire

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“…This term, in business, describes a "quick-fix" management strategy, which focuses on fixing rather than preventing problems, often resulting in unintended negative consequences [18]. In the realm of forest fire management, such a strategy can initially appear successful as it is likely to reduce damage in the short term, but in the long term it fails to address the roots of the increasing wildfire potential [19] resulting in the so-called "fire paradox" [20,21]. This problem has been documented clearly and current scientific thinking calls for shifting the focus from fire suppression to mitigation, prevention, and preparation, as such a policy is more likely to reduce the negative socioeconomic and ecological effects of fire than the current, largely one-dimensional, focus on fire exclusion [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovative Action for Forest Fire Prevention in Kythira Island, Greece, through Mobilization and Cooperation of the Population: Methodology and Challenges

Xanthopoulos¹,

Athanasiou

Nikiforaki

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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The island of Kythira in Greece suffered a major forest fire in 2017 that burned 8.91% of its total area and revealed many challenges regarding fire management. Following that, the Hellenic Society for the Protection of Nature joined forces with the Institute of Mediterranean and Forest Ecosystems in a project aiming to improve fire prevention there through mobilization and cooperation of the population. This paper describes the methodology and the results. The latter include an in-depth analysis of fire statistics for the island, development of a forest fuels map, and prevention planning for selected settlements based on fire modeling and on an assessment of the vulnerability of 610 structures, carried out with the contribution of groups of volunteers. Emphasis was placed on informing locals, including students, through talks and workshops, on how to prevent forest fires and prepare their homes and themselves for such an event, and on mobilizing them to carry out fuel management and forest rehabilitation work. In the final section of the paper, the challenges that the two partners faced and the project achievements and shortcomings are presented and discussed, leading to conclusions that can be useful for similar efforts in other places in Greece and elsewhere.

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“…However, global change dynamics are rapidly modifying the scene, and extreme wildfires are becoming a major civil protection issue ( Rego et al, 2018 ; Plana et al, 2018 ). In Mediterranean countries, this is largely driven by rural exodus and land abandonment ( Frei et al, 2020 ), threatening socio-economic and environmental values ( Wunder et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%