Northern South America is identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Furthermore, recent extreme wet seasons over the region have induced socioeconomic impacts of wide proportions. Hence, the evaluation of rainfall simulations at seasonal and interannual time scales by the CMIP5 models is urgently required. Here, we evaluated the ability of seven CMIP5 models (selected based on literature review) to represent the seasonal mean precipitation and its interannual variability over northern South America. Our results suggest that it is easier for models to reproduce rainfall distribution during boreal summer and fall over both oceans and land. This is probably due to the fact that during these seasons, incoming radiation and ocean-atmosphere feedbacks over Atlantic and Pacific oceans locate the ITCZ on the Northern Hemisphere, as suggested by previous studies. Models exhibit the worse simulations during boreal winter and spring, when these processes have opposite effects locating the ITCZ. Our results suggest that the models with a better representation of the oceanic ITCZ and the local low-level jets over northern South America, such as the Choco low-level jet, are able to realistically simulate the main features of seasonal precipitation pattern over northern South America.

The occurrence of natural and socially driven catastrophic events has increased in the last few decades in response to global environmental changes. One of the most societally relevant challenges in managing the effects of these events is the establishment of risk management strategies that focus on managing vulnerability, particularly in disfavored countries, and communities among them. Most cases of enhanced vulnerability occur in, but are not limited to, developing countries, where the combination of social inequity, inappropriate use of natural resources, population displacement, and institutional mistrust, among other factors, make risk management particularly challenging. This paper presents a vulnerability-centered risk management framework based on social cohesion and integration principles that, combined with scientific, technical, and popular knowledge, lead to the development of social networks of risk reduction. This framework is intended as a strategy to strengthen early warning systems (EWS), where the human-related factor is among their most challenging components. Using water-related hazards as a case study, this paper describes the experience of the conformation of a social network for environmental monitoring using this model example on vulnerability reduction in the rural areas of the central Andes in Colombia. This experience allowed the effective conformation of a social network for environmental monitoring in 80 municipalities of Colombia, where communities developed a sense of ownership with the instrumentation and the network, strengthening links with local authorities and contributing to more efficient EWS. More generally, the authors highlight the need to develop vulnerability-centered risk management via community-building strategies, particularly for areas where little can be done to decrease the occurrence of catastrophic events.