Northern South America is identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Furthermore, recent extreme wet seasons over the region have induced socioeconomic impacts of wide proportions. Hence, the evaluation of rainfall simulations at seasonal and interannual time scales by the CMIP5 models is urgently required. Here, we evaluated the ability of seven CMIP5 models (selected based on literature review) to represent the seasonal mean precipitation and its interannual variability over northern South America. Our results suggest that it is easier for models to reproduce rainfall distribution during boreal summer and fall over both oceans and land. This is probably due to the fact that during these seasons, incoming radiation and ocean-atmosphere feedbacks over Atlantic and Pacific oceans locate the ITCZ on the Northern Hemisphere, as suggested by previous studies. Models exhibit the worse simulations during boreal winter and spring, when these processes have opposite effects locating the ITCZ. Our results suggest that the models with a better representation of the oceanic ITCZ and the local low-level jets over northern South America, such as the Choco low-level jet, are able to realistically simulate the main features of seasonal precipitation pattern over northern South America.

We analyze the characteristics of atmospheric variations over tropical South America using the pattern recognition framework of weather typing or atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). During 1979-2020, nine CPs are defined in the region, using a k-means algorithm based on daily unfiltered 850 hPa winds over 0035°N-30°S, 90°W-30°W. CPs are primarily interpreted as stages of the annual cycle of the low-level circulation. We identified three “winter” CPs (CP7, CP8 and CP9), three “summer” CPs (CP3, CP4 and CP5) and three “transitional” CPs (CP1, CP2 and CP6). Significant long-term changes are detected during the dry-to-wet transition season (July-October) over south tropical South America (STSA). One of the wintertime patterns (CP9) increases from 20% in the 1980s to 35% in the last decade while the “transitional” CP2 decreases from 13% to 7%. CP9 is characterized by enhancement of the South American Low-Level Jet and increasing atmospheric subsidence over STSA. CP2 is characterized by southerly cold-air incursions and anomalous convective activity over STSA. The years characterized by high (low) frequency of CP9 (CP2) during the dry-to-wet transition season are associated with a delayed South American Monsoon onset and anomalous dry conditions over STSA. Consistently, a higher frequency of CP9 intensifies the fire season over STSA (1999-2020). Over the Brazilian states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Goiás and São Paulo, the seasonal frequency of CP9 explains around 35%-44% of the interannual variations of fire counts.

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South Tropical South America (STSA), extended approximately between 10°N-30°S and 90°W-30°W, is a wide region where diverse interactions among biomass, land surface processes and atmospheric convection take place. These interactions modulate the local and regional climate and directly impact on the socio-environmental activities (Fu et al., 2013;Reis et al., 2018;Zhang et al., 2015). STSA hosts the Amazonia -the world's largest rainforest and one of the major sources of evapotranspiration -playing a critical role in the global balances of energy, water, moisture and carbon (Gatti et al., 2021;Llopart et al., 2020). The region presents unique biodiversity and geographical patterns, mainly due to the interaction of the Amazonia and the Andes mountain range, which have deep implications in the atmospheric dynamics, moisture transport and river discharge not only throughout STSA but also in remote regions of the continent (Arias, Garreaud, et al., 2021;Espinoza et al., 2020;Sierra et al., 2021). Precipitation (PP) over STSA presents a marked spatio-temporal variability, strongly controlled by the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), with rainfall maxima during its active phase during the austral summer (Marengo et al., 2012;Vera et al., 2006). The monsoonal circulation -which develops in response to seasonal changes in thermal land-sea contrasts -is connected to different documented atmospheric features, including a NW-SE band of convergence and convective activity over the southeast of South America and the adjacent South Atlantic ocean known as the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), an anticyclonic center located