In this paper, a spatial predator-prey model with herd behavior in prey population and quadratic mortality in predator population is investigated. By the linear stability analysis, we obtain the condition for stationary pattern. Moreover, using standard multiple-scale analysis, we establish the amplitude equations for the excited modes, which determine the stability of amplitudes towards uniform and inhomogeneous perturbations. By numerical simulations, we find that the model exhibits complex pattern replication: spotted pattern, stripe pattern, and coexistence of the two. The results may enrich the pattern dynamics in predator-prey models and help us to better understand the dynamics of predator-prey interactions in a real environment.
Tuberculosis (TB), an air-borne infectious disease, is a major public-health problem in China. The reported number of the active tuberculosis cases is about one million each year. The morbidity data for 2005–2012 reflect that the difference in morbidity based on age group is significant, thus the role of age-structure on the transmission of TB needs to be further developed. In this work, based on the reported data and the observed morbidity characteristics, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with age groupings, involving three categories: children, the middle-aged, and senior to investigate the role of age on the transmission of tuberculosis in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016. Then, we evaluated the parameters by the Least Square method and simulated the model and it had good alignment with the reported infected TB data in Mainland China. Furthermore, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of 1.7858, with an obtained 95% confidence interval for R0 of (1.7752,1.7963) by Latin hypercube sampling, and we completed a sensitivity analysis of R0 in terms of some parameters. Our study demonstrates that diverse age groups have different effects on TB. Two effective measures were found that would help reach the goals of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy: an increase in the recovery rate and the reduction in the infectious rate of the senior age group.
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