Analysis of Transmission and Control of Tuberculosis in Mainland China, 2005–2016, Based on the Age-Structure Mathematical Model

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB), an air-borne infectious disease, is a major public-health problem in China. The reported number of the active tuberculosis cases is about one million each year. The morbidity data for 2005–2012 reflect that the difference in morbidity based on age group is significant, thus the role of age-structure on the transmission of TB needs to be further developed. In this work, based on the reported data and the observed morbidity characteristics, we propose a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with age groupings, involving three categories: children, the middle-aged, and senior to investigate the role of age on the transmission of tuberculosis in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016. Then, we evaluated the parameters by the Least Square method and simulated the model and it had good alignment with the reported infected TB data in Mainland China. Furthermore, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of 1.7858, with an obtained 95% confidence interval for R0 of (1.7752,1.7963) by Latin hypercube sampling, and we completed a sensitivity analysis of R0 in terms of some parameters. Our study demonstrates that diverse age groups have different effects on TB. Two effective measures were found that would help reach the goals of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy: an increase in the recovery rate and the reduction in the infectious rate of the senior age group.

Statistical methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence based on data from Guangxi, China

“…Infected people can spread TB germs from their mouth when they cough or sneeze. After suffering from TB, if the patients are not given timely, thorough treatment, which can pose a serious threat to their health, even make them completely lost the ability to work, and the TB patients may also infect others [1]. At present, although great progress has been made around the world in the prevention and control of TB, many countries, especially in low-income and middle-income settings, are still afflicted with a chronic plague of TB with huge economies losses [2].…”

Quantifying TB transmission: a systematic review of reproduction number and serial interval estimates for tuberculosis

“…The difference between the estimated reproductive numbers produced from these two modelling exercises is striking, as the two regions and populations are quite comparable in terms of demographics, economic status and access to healthcare. One could similarly contrast the modelling approaches and estimates obtained in [34] and [43], two other studies from China and Taiwan from similar time periods that produced different estimates. The differing model structures, as well as the parameter estimates, including the recruitment rate, incidence rate, and mortality rate, likely drive these observed differences.…”

The effect of media coverage on threshold dynamics for a stochastic SIS epidemic model

“…The emerging and reemerging diseases have led to an extensive interest in investigation of infectious disease [40]. The medica coverage as an effective preventive measure plays an important role in controlling the disease spread [4].…”