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Predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) deals with predicting a process's future behavior based on historical event logs to support a process's execution. Many of the recent techniques utilize a machine-learned model to predict which event type is the next most likely. Beyond PBPM, prescriptive BPM aims at finding optimal actions based on considering relevant key performance indicators. Existing techniques are geared towards the outcome prediction and deal with alarms for interventions or interventions that do not represent process events. In this paper, we argue that the next event prediction is insufficient for practitioners. Accordingly, this research-in-progress paper proposes a technique for determining next best actions that represent process events. We conducted an intermediate evaluation to test the usefulness and the quality of our technique compared to the most frequently cited technique for predicting next events. The results show a higher usefulness for process participants than a next most likely event.

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Researchers have proposed a variety of predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) techniques aiming to predict future process behaviour during the process execution. Especially, techniques for the next activity prediction anticipate great potential in improving operational business processes. To gain more accurate predictions, a plethora of these techniques rely on deep neural networks (DNNs) and consider information about the context, in which the process is running. However, an in-depth comparison of such techniques is missing in the PBPM literature, which prevents researchers and practitioners from selecting the best solution for a given event log. To remedy this problem, we empirically evaluate the predictive quality of three promising DNN architectures, combined with five proven encoding techniques and based on five context-enriched real-life event logs. We provide four findings that can support researchers and practitioners in designing novel PBPM techniques for predicting the next activities.

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