Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which pathways are responsible for projected climate effects. Determining whether climate change acts indirectly through changing fire regimes and/or vegetation dynamics, or directly through changes in climatic suitability may allow land managers to address negative trajectories via forest management. We used SpaDES, a novel toolkit built in R that facilitates the implementation of simulation models from different areas of knowledge to develop a simulation experiment for a study area comprising 50 million ha in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our factorial experiment was designed to contrast climate effects pathways on 64 landbird species using climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive models for tree growth and mortality, wildfire, and landbirds. Climate-change effects were predicted to increase suitable habitat for 73% of species, resulting in average net gain of 7.49 million ha across species. We observed higher species turnover in the northeastern, south-central (species loss), and western regions (species gain). Importantly, we found that most of the predicted differences in net area of occupancy across models were attributed to direct climate effects rather than simulated vegetation change, despite a similar relative importance of vegetation and climate variables in landbird models. Even with close to a doubling of annual area burned by 2100, and a 600 kg/ha increase in aboveground tree biomass predicted in this region, differences in landbird net occupancy across models attributed to climate-driven forest growth were very small, likely resulting from differences in the pace of vegetation and climate changes, or vegetation lags. The effect of vegetation lags (i.e., differences from climatic equilibrium) varied across species, resulting in a wide range of changes in landbird distribution, and consequently predicted occupancy, due to climate effects. These findings suggest that hybrid approaches using statistical models and landscape simulation tools could improve wildlife forecasts when future uncoupling of vegetation and climate is anticipated. This study lays some of the methodological groundwork for ecological adaptive management using the new platform SpaDES, which allows for iterative forecasting, mixing of modeling paradigms, and tightening connections between data, parameterization, and simulation.

Abstract. According to the ideal despotic distribution (IDD), dominant individuals gain a fitness advantage by acquiring territories that are of higher quality, thereby forcing other individuals into lower quality habitat. In contrast, the ideal free distribution (IFD) predicts that local density is a function of habitat quality, but that individuals achieve the same fitness in different habitat types as a result of density-dependent variation in territory size. Although the IFD represents an alternative, population dynamics of territorial species are generally expected to be driven by an IDD. We tested the predictions of IFD and IDD by monitoring the demographic response of the Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) to selection harvesting (30-40% tree removal) during the first five years postharvest in five pairs of 25-ha study plots, each comprising a control (undisturbed) and a treatment (harvested plot). In the first year following harvesting, Ovenbird territory size increased in treatment plots relative to controls, whereas density, productivity per unit area, and the abundance of litter invertebrates decreased. Treatment effects declined consistently as stands regenerated, and most effects were no longer significant by the fifth year postharvest. However, there was no treatment effect on daily nest survival rate nor on per capita productivity. These results are consistent with the IFD, whereby similar per capita productivity is achieved across habitat types through density adjustments facilitated by changes in territory size. To our knowledge, this is the first study providing evidence for an IFD in a territorial bird species.

Research666 the probability that our method missed peaks (spatial: 0.12, temporal: 0.18) or detected false peaks (spatial: 0.11, temporal: 0.37) due to data gaps and showed that our approach remains useful even for sparse and/or sporadic location data. Our study presents a generalizable approach to evaluating migratory connectivity across the full annual cycle that can be used to focus migratory bird conservation towards places and times of the annual cycle where populations are more likely to be limited.

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ABSTRACT. Understanding factors that affect the distribution and abundance of species is critical to developing effective management plans for conservation. Our goal was to quantify the distribution and abundance of Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis), a threatened old-forest associate in Alberta, Canada. The Canada Warbler has declined across its range, including in Alberta where habitat loss and alteration from urban expansion, forestry, and energy development are changing the forest landscape. We used 110,427 point count survey visits from 32,287 unique survey stations to model local-level (150-m radius circular buffers) and stand-level (564-m radius circular buffers) habitat associations of the Canada Warbler. We found that habitat supporting higher densities of Canada Warblers was locally concentrated yet broadly distributed across Alberta's boreal forest region. Canada Warblers were most commonly associated with older deciduous forest at the local scale, particularly near small, incised streams, and greater amounts of deciduous forest at the stand scale. Predicted density was lower in other forest types and younger age classes measured at the local scale. There was little evidence that local-scale fragmentation (i.e., edges created by linear features) influenced Canada Warbler abundance. However, current forestry practices in the province likely will reduce the availability of Canada Warbler habitat over time by cutting old deciduous forest stands. Our results suggest that conservation efforts aimed at Canada Warbler focus on retaining large stands of old deciduous forest, specifically stands adjacent to streams, by increasing the width of deciduous retention buffers along streams during harvest and increasing the size and number of old forest residual patches in harvested stands.Besoins régionaux en matière d'habitat d'une espèce inscrite sur la liste nationale d'espèces en péril, la Paruline du Canada (Cardellina canadensis), en Alberta, Canada RÉSUMÉ. La compréhension des facteurs qui influent sur la répartition et l'abondance d'une espèce est importante si l'on veut élaborer des plans de gestion efficaces pour sa conservation. L'objectif de notre étude était de quantifier la répartition et l'abondance de la Paruline du Canada (Cardellina canadensis), une espèce menacée associée aux forêts âgées en Alberta, Canada. Les effectifs de la Paruline du Canada ont diminué dans l'ensemble de son aire, y compris en Alberta où la perte et la modification d'habitat attribuables à l'étalement urbain, aux pratiques forestières et aux activités de développement énergétique modifient le paysage forestier. Nous avons utilisé 110 427 dénombrements à partir de 32 287 stations d'écoute afin de modéliser l'association de la Paruline du Canada avec l'habitat à l'échelle locale (rayon de 150 m autour de la station) et à celle du peuplement (rayon de 564 m autour de la station). Nous avons trouvé que les milieux qui hébergeaient les densités les plus élevées de Paruline du Canada étaient concentrés localement, mais aussi t...

Summary1. Recruitment, i.e. the influx of new breeding individuals into a population, is an important demographic parameter, especially in species with a short life span. Few studies have measured this parameter in solitary-breeding animal populations even though it may yield critical information on habitat suitability and functional connectivity. 2. Using a before-after, control-impact pairs (BACIP) experimental design, we measured: (i) the return rate and apparent survival rate of individually marked territorial males of a neotropical migrant bird species, the Ovenbird Seiurus aurocapilla Linnaeus and (ii) the age-specific recruitment rate. Study plots (n = 10) were paired: one was treated through single-tree selection harvesting (30-40% basal area removal) and the other acted as a control. We hypothesized that experienced males would out-compete inexperienced ones and tend to avoid settling in lowerquality, treated stands. 3. In the first year post-harvest, the mean density of territorial males was significantly lower in treated plots ()41%) than in controls and the difference remained relatively stable thereafter. This lower density mainly reflected a lower recruitment rate compared to controls (17AE9 vs. 49AE0% of males present), itself driven by a lower recruitment rate of experienced males (2AE8 vs. 22AE8%). Return rate was similar between controls and treated plots in the first year post-harvest (59 vs. 55%, respectively) but it decreased in treated plots during the second ()15AE8% relative to controls) and third ()12AE7%) year post-harvest. The trend was even stronger when considering only experienced males. The treatment was followed by a major expansion in mean territory size in treated plots (+49% relative to controls, 3rd year post-treatment). 4. Neither apparent survival rate nor recruitment rate varied as predicted. There was a strong year effect but no treatment effect on apparent survival rate, whereas male recruitment patterns were both year-and age-specific. Three years post-harvest, recruitment rate was sufficient to fill most territory vacancies in treated plots, due mainly to first-time breeders. 5. To our knowledge, this is the first study documenting the effects of experimental habitat alteration on recruitment rate in a songbird species using a BACI design. The response of this male subpopulation highlights the influence of recruitment on the density of open populations of solitary-nesting birds and age-specific patterns in the response of individuals to habitat alterations.

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Adult birds tend to show high fidelity to their breeding territory or disperse over relatively short distances. Gene flow among avian populations is thus expected to occur primarily through natal dispersal. Although natal dispersal is a critical demographic process reflecting the area over which population dynamics take place, low recapture rates of birds breeding for the first time have limited our ability to reliably estimate dispersal rates and distances. Stable isotope approaches can elucidate origins of unmarked birds and so we generated year- and age-specific δ2H and δ34S feather isoscapes (ca. 180 000 km2) of coastal-breeding Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) and used bivariate probability density functions to assign the likely natal areas of 35 males recruited as first-year breeders into a population located in northwestern New Brunswick, Canada. Most individuals (80–94% depending on the magnitude of an age correction factor used; i.e. 28–33 out of 35) were classified as residents (i.e. fledged within our study area) and estimated minimum dispersal distances of immigrants were between 40 and 240 km. Even when considering maximum dispersal distances, the likely origin of most first-year breeders was<200 km from our study area. Our method identified recruitment into our population from large geographic areas with relatively few samples whereas previous mark-recapture based methods have required orders of magnitude more individuals to describe dispersal at such geographic scales. Natal dispersal movements revealed here suggest the spatial scale over which many population processes are taking place and we suggest that conservation plans aiming to maintain populations of Ovenbirds and ecologically-similar species should consider management units within 100 or at most 200 km of target breeding populations.