The Nairobi volcano-sedimentary regional aquifer system (NAS) of Kenya hosts >6 M people, including 4.7 M people in the city of Nairobi. This work combines analysis of multi-decadal in-situ water-level data with numerical groundwater modelling to provide an assessment of the past and likely future evolution of Nairobi’s groundwater resources. Since the mid-1970s, groundwater abstraction has increased 10-fold at a rate similar to urban population growth, groundwater levels have declined at a median rate of 6 m/decade underneath Nairobi since 1950, whilst built-up areas have increased by 70% since 2000. Despite the absence of significant trends in climatic data since the 1970s, more recently, drought conditions have resulted in increased applications for borehole licences. Based on a new conceptual understanding of the NAS (including insights from geophysics and stable isotopes), numerical simulations provide further quantitative estimates of the accelerating negative impact of abstraction and capture the historical groundwater levels quite well. Analysis suggests a groundwater-level decline of 4 m on average over the entire aquifer area and up to 46 m below Nairobi, net groundwater storage loss of 1.5 billion m3 and 9% river baseflow reduction since 1950. Given current practices and trajectories, these figures are predicted to increase six-fold by 2120. Modelled future management scenarios suggest that future groundwater abstraction required to meet Nairobi projected water demand is unsustainable and that the regional anthropogenically-driven depletion trend can be partially mitigated through conjunctive water use. The presented approach can inform groundwater assessment for other major African cities undergoing similar rapid groundwater development.

Understanding the spatio-temporal variability in groundwater recharge is a prerequisite to sustainable management of aquifers. Spatial analysis of groundwater stable isotopes uncovered predominant controls on groundwater recharge in the Nairobi aquifer system (NAS) and the South Coast aquifer (SC), two exemplar East African aquifers relied upon by 7 million people. We analysed 368 samples for stable isotopes and basic physico-chemical parameters. The NAS groundwater isotopes are controlled by precipitation orographic effects and enriched recharge from impounded lakes/wetlands; the SC isotopes are correlated with water-table depth influencing evapotranspiration. Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) data revealed groundwater recharge during months of heavy rains in the NAS, whilst the SC experiences spatiotemporally diffuse recharge. Inferred "isoscapes" show: in the NAS, (1) direct, rapid recharge favoured by faults, well-drained soils and ample rainfall in uplands, (2) delayed recharge from impounded lakes and wetlands in mid-lands, and (3) focused, event-based recharge in floodplains; and in the SC, diffuse recharge complicated by significant water-table evapotranspiration processes.

Fresh groundwater resources in coastal East Africa are crucial for the region's socioeconomic development but are under threat of salinization caused by changes in recharge patterns and increasing abstraction. With the aim of establishing the drivers behind saltwater intrusion and its current spatial extent, we studied the Kenyan South Coast aquifer, a representative, strategic aquifer under increased pressure. Investigations included electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys and in-situ groundwater measurements (water table and basic quality) together with the analysis of available longterm climatic and borehole monitoring data. Over the last 40 years, groundwater electrical conductivity values at the well field increased by about three times and groundwater levels declined by 1 to 3 m over the last decade. When put in perspective with the long-term climate (rainfall, temperature) and abstraction records, these trends in groundwater appear to be primarily driven by increased borehole abstraction (+400 m 3 /day per year in average), whereas observed increasing temperature (+0.02 ℃ per year) and decreasing rainfall (-0.8 mm per year) could potentially act as a secondary control through reduced recharge. However the low statistical significance obtained for both rainfall and temperature trends over the observation period suggests that no clear conclusion can be made with regards to longterm climate impact on groundwater. Groundwater quality mapping showed that proximity to the ocean, ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT presence of abstraction well-fields and regional geology control groundwater salinity patterns at regional scale. Locally, geophysical data showed that, saltwater intrusion spatial patterns are controlled by local aquifer lithology, groundwater abstraction and freshwater recharge in floodplains. Comparison with previous (1984) resistivity data showed that the saltwater front has advanced toward the well-field by up to 2 km and rose by up to 80 m over the last 30 years, which corresponds to a maximal velocity of about 60 m/y horizontally and 2 m/y vertically. Implementation of groundwater management strategies such as sustainable groundwater exploitation, sourced alternative water supply, and managed aquifer recharge are required to mitigate the effects of seawater intrusion along the East African coastal strip.

Nairobi, Kenya’s capital city, is one of the fastest-growing cities on the continent. The rapid expansion of human activities has resulted in the overexploitation of natural resources, such as water. In the past, Nairobi had been identified as a vulnerable area to environmental hazards, such as land subsidence. Due to the lack of a functioning deformation-monitoring system in Kenya, the subsidence in Nairobi has yet to be empirically quantified. In this paper, we report the results of the first InSAR-based spatial assessment of land subsidence in Nairobi. Our analysis indicates both localized and regionalized subsidence in several locations in the west and north west of Nairobi. The largest deforming unit in Nairobi’s western part is subsiding at approximately 62 mm/yr. Land subsidence can be attributed to groundwater overexploitation because it coincides with regions with the highest decline in groundwater levels. However, subsidence can also be attributed to consolidation associated with rapid urbanization in other areas such as east of Nairobi. This evaluation corroborates previous hydrogeological investigations which indicated that Nairobi was at risk of subsidence, contributing to flooding in some residential areas. The findings will help guide future decision-making in several agencies as well as provide an effective tool for planning mitigation measures to prevent further subsidence. A few of these include regulating borehole drilling, planning of roads and buildings, and locating groundwater observation wells. In addition, the observed significant land subsidence stresses the need for an updated geodetic reference system. Since Nairobi plays a significant role in the economy of Kenya, the effects of subsidence may be devastating and it is imperative that steps are taken to minimize their impact.

Nairobi city is one of the fastest-growing cities in Africa. The rapid development has put pressure on the existing resources such as water resulting in overexploitation of groundwater. Nairobi had been reported to be susceptible to environmental hazards such as subsidence associated with the overexploitation of groundwater due to depletion of its aquifer. However, the subsidence has not been empirically quantified because Kenya lacks a functioning deformation monitoring framework. Through the use of InSAR, land subsidence in Nairobi was spatially quantified for the first time that confirms fears of subsidence as suggested by previous hydrogeological studies. We observed an increase in the spatial extends and the rates of subsidence, the highest rate of subsidence being approx. 62mm/yr located in the largest deforming area West of Nairobi. The deformation can majorly be linked to overexploitation of groundwater as it matches with regions with the highest rate of decline of groundwater levels. However, there exist also subsidence linked to rapid development. Given the significance of Nairobi to the Kenyan economy, the ripple effects of subsidence could be devastating and measures need to be taken to mitigate them. The deformation map provides an important tool for planning mitigation measures to prevent further deformation such as regulating the drilling of boreholes, planning of construction of buildings and transport networks, and locations for the observation wells for monitoring groundwater levels. It also reinforces the need for updating the geodetic network that has been rendered unreliable due to land subsidence.