The Central Region of Kenya has undergone significant changes in land cover due to a broad range of drivers. These changes are more pronounced in forestland conversions. Past researches within the study area have identified drivers of land cover change without quantifying the influence of these drivers. Predictor variables include population density, precipitation, elevation, slope, forest fires, soil texture, proximity to roads, rives and towns. Land cover changes were analyzed using multi-temporal land cover maps between year 1990 and 2014. Boosted regression trees model was applied to determine the significant drivers and quantify their relative influence on key forestland transitions. The local and spatial influence of the drivers has further been analyzed by geographical weighted regression using coefficients determined at each sample point. Significant land cover changes continuously occurred over the study period. Forestland reduced from 38.90% in 1990 to 38.14% in 2014. Grassland reduced from 32.59 to 22.57%, cropland increased from 28.05 to 38.83% and wetland changed from 0.07 to 0.04%. Other land which constitutes of bare land and built up increased from 0.38 to 0.42%. The results show population density had the highest contribution to forestland changes throughout the study period, with a minimum contribution of 20.02% to a maximum of 26.04%. Other significant variables over the study period are precipitation, slope, elevation and the proximity variables. The results indicate that the relative influence of the drivers to forestland conversion varies with time, location and type of transition.
Nairobi, Kenya’s capital city, is one of the fastest-growing cities on the continent. The rapid expansion of human activities has resulted in the overexploitation of natural resources, such as water. In the past, Nairobi had been identified as a vulnerable area to environmental hazards, such as land subsidence. Due to the lack of a functioning deformation-monitoring system in Kenya, the subsidence in Nairobi has yet to be empirically quantified. In this paper, we report the results of the first InSAR-based spatial assessment of land subsidence in Nairobi. Our analysis indicates both localized and regionalized subsidence in several locations in the west and north west of Nairobi. The largest deforming unit in Nairobi’s western part is subsiding at approximately 62 mm/yr. Land subsidence can be attributed to groundwater overexploitation because it coincides with regions with the highest decline in groundwater levels. However, subsidence can also be attributed to consolidation associated with rapid urbanization in other areas such as east of Nairobi. This evaluation corroborates previous hydrogeological investigations which indicated that Nairobi was at risk of subsidence, contributing to flooding in some residential areas. The findings will help guide future decision-making in several agencies as well as provide an effective tool for planning mitigation measures to prevent further subsidence. A few of these include regulating borehole drilling, planning of roads and buildings, and locating groundwater observation wells. In addition, the observed significant land subsidence stresses the need for an updated geodetic reference system. Since Nairobi plays a significant role in the economy of Kenya, the effects of subsidence may be devastating and it is imperative that steps are taken to minimize their impact.
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