Rihani and Geyer ( 2001) outlined a possible shift in the study and practice of development away from a linear, Newtonian formulation towards a nonlinear framework that views development as an ongoing complex adaptive process. They suggested that the transformation could provide a theoretical synthesis for diverse ideas that have recently emerged as assorted responses to past failures. This second progress report considers some of the implications of adopting such a framework.Naturally, a move to a radically different framework alters the concept of development as currently understood. The main features of the revised concept are summarized below, as a first step towards determining the possible consequences of accepting the new formulation.Development is an open-ended evolving process that has no beginning, no end and no shortcuts (Rihani, 2002). Effective development proceeds as a cyclical activity that has three indivisible components: survival, adaptation and learning. Survival relates to the presence of a discernable stable pattern or structure, learning means the build up and application of relevant knowledge, while adaptation describes change that enhances performance and the probability of survival. Success, therefore, relies heavily on striking a balance between: malleability, but not so much that the slightest jolt would destroy the structure; and stability, but not so much as to prevent gradual adaptation (Kauffman, 1996: 73). The pattern has to survive long enough for the next evolutionary step to take place. Learning, however, improves the effectiveness of each adaptive change to enable the structure to cope better with fluctuating conditions
This is the third progress report on the possible applicability of complex systems theory as a framework for the study and practice of development (see Rihani, 2001Rihani, , 2002a. It suggests that a substantial change in the development framework is now emerging. However, ad hoc adjustments to policies and actions within the current wisdom are not sufficient to effect a sustainable improvement in performance. Despite the difficulties associated with a radical shift in overall structure, the key issue is no longer whether a change is necessary and feasible but rather what form the new framework will take and how the process of revision will unfold.
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