Background:As reported by Iranian governments, the first cases of coronavirus infections confirmed in Qom, Iran on February 19, 2020 (30 Bahman 1398). The number of identified cases afterward increased rapidly and the novel coronavirus spread to all provinces of the country. This study aimed to fit an epidemic model to the reported cases data to estimate the basic reproduction number (ܴ ) of COVID-19 in Iran. Methods:We used data from February 21, 2020, to March 18, 2020, on the number of cases reported by Iranian governments and we employed the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) epidemic spreading model to fit the transmission model to the reported cases data by tuning the parameters in order to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran. Results:The value of reproduction number was estimated 4.86 in the first week and 4.5 in the second and decreasing from 4.29 to 2.1 in the third and fourth weeks. Conclusions:The results indicate that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 is significantly larger than one. Based on the results, it is necessary to implement social distancing and a strict restriction on travelling to control the outbreak especially on Nowruz (Persian New Year).

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Background: COVID-19 was first reported in Iran on February 19, 2020. Bushehr, one of the warmest provinces of Iran, was the last province confirmed to be infected on March 5, 2020. In the beginning of April, Bushehr was announced as a white, coronavirus-free, province. However, increasing the temperature in the next months did not affect the spread of coronavirus and the number of confirmed cases increased during the next months, so that Bushehr was announced as a Red province on June 13, 2020. Methods: This paper aims 1) to estimate the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Bushehr considering COVID-19 reported cases of Bushehr from April to June 12, 2020, using exponential function and SIR epidemic model, and 2) to investigate the impact of temperature on the reproduction number and the spread of coronavirus in Bushehr using the temperature data. Results: The reproduction number was estimated to be 2.564, 2.641 and 2.573 at the beginning of April, May and June 2020 respectively. Regarding the increase in the temperature from April to June, the results showed that not only was the spread of COVID-19 not reduced but it also increased. Conclusion: Data analysis on this study showed that high temperature has no impact on the reproduction number and does not slow down the spread of coronavirus in Bushehr.

Highlight: Data analysis on the spread of COVID-19 in Bushehr, one of the warmest provinces of Iran, indicates that rising summer temperatures do not reduce the reproduction number and the spread of COVID-19.