Rising summer temperatures do not reduce the reproduction number of COVID-19

Sahafizadeh, Ebrahim; Sartoli, Samaneh

doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa189

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 9 publications

(9 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…compared with previous studies (2%~4% or no effects) which excluded intervention effects and used reproductive number looking at virus transmission (Sahafizadeh & Sartoli, 2020;Wang, Tang, Feng, & Lv, 2020). One possible explanation for this difference is the choice of time period: a study assessed a very short time period with no public health intervention in China (19 January -23 January) and U.S. (15 March -6 April), and all data were from the period prior to stay-at-home orders being fully implemented .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather variability and transmissibility of COVID-19: a time series analysis based on effective reproductive number

Bambrick

Zhang

et al. 2021

Exp Results

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

COVID-19 is causing a significant burden on medical and healthcare resources globally due to high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths recorded as the pandemic continues. This research aims to assess the effects of climate factors (i.e., daily average temperature and average relative humidity) on effective reproductive number of COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China during the early stage of the 2 outbreak. Our research showed that effective reproductive number of COVID-19 will increase by 7.6% (95% Confidence Interval: 5.4% ~ 9.8%) per 1°C drop in mean temperature at prior moving average of 0-8 days lag in Wuhan, China. Our results indicate temperature was negatively associated with COVID-19 transmissibility during early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting temperature is likely to effect COVID-19 transmission. These results suggest increased precautions should be taken in the colder seasons to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the future, based on past success in controlling the pandemic in Wuhan, China.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather variability and transmissibility of COVID-19: a time series analysis based on effective reproductive number

Bambrick

Zhang

et al. 2021

Exp Results

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Several researches have employed mathematical models to analyze the epidemic curve and forecast the epidemic trend of COVID-19 Iran [3][11][12]. Some studies have tried to investigate the relationship between COVID-19 and meteorological and climatological factors [13][14].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

365 days with COVID-19 in Iran: data analysis and epidemic curves

Sahafizadeh

Azad

2021

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: The first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran were reported on February 19, 2020. This study aimed to analyze the epidemic curves and to investigate the correlation between epidemic parameters and furthermore to analyze the impact of control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Iran during 365 days of the epidemic. Methods: We used data from February 20, 2020, to February 18, 2021, on the number of COVID-19 cases reported by Iranian governments. Pearson correlation coefficient was applied to investigate the correlation between different epidemic parameters. The number of daily deaths per daily new cases was averaged to calculate daily death rate and the same method was used to investigate the rate of daily positive tests. Furthermore, we employed two different methods to calculate the effective reproduction number using reported data. Results: The results showed that there was a strong correlation between the number of daily deaths and the number of daily new cases (specially the admitted cases). The results also indicated that the mean of daily death rate of COVID-19 during 365 days was 4.9 percent, and averagely 13.9 percent of daily tests results were positive. Furthermore, epidemic curves showed that implementing strict social distancing measures effectively reduced the number of confirmed cases. The effective reproduction curve indicated that social distancing is still necessary to control the spread of COVID-19 in Iran. Conclusions: Analyzing the prevention and control measures indicated that the strict social distancing implemented by the government effectively reduces the number of new cases and deaths. The curve of reproduction number also showed that effective reproduction number is still above one; hence, it is necessary to continue strict social distancing and control travelling to prevent causing another wave of outbreak especially in Persian New Year.

show abstract

“… 38 . Likewise, no impact of the summer temperature increase on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic was observed in Iran 41 . In Brazil, factors related to human development (household income, education, and level of health) were found to have a greater impact on the spread of COVID-19 than climatic factors 42 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on severe non-SARS-CoV-2 community-acquired pneumonia in Reunion Island: a multicenter retrospective observational study, 2016–2021

Combe,

Kovacs,

de Mangou

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a considerable impact on the incidence of severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Reunion Island. This multicenter retrospective observational study was conducted from 2016 to 2021 in the hospitals of Reunion Island. The incidence of severe non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP, microorganisms, characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalized in intensive care unit were compared between the pre-COVID-19 period (January 1, 2016 to February 29, 2020) and the early COVID-19 period (March 1, 2020 to October 31, 2021). Over the study period, 389 patients developed severe non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP. The incidence of severe non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP significantly decreased between the two periods (9.16 vs. 4.13 cases per 100,000 person-years). The influenza virus was isolated in 43.5% patients with severe non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP in the pre-COVID-19 period and in none of the 60 patients in the early COVID-19 period (P < 0.0001). The only virus that did not decrease was rhinovirus. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most frequently isolated bacterial microorganism, with no significant difference between the two periods. In Reunion Island, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant decrease in the incidence of influenza, which likely explains the observed decrease in the incidence of severe non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP. The pandemic had no impact on the incidence of other viral and bacterial severe non-SARS-CoV-2 CAP. Monitoring influenza incidence is crucial now that COVID-19 control measures have been removed.

show abstract

Rising summer temperatures do not reduce the reproduction number of COVID-19

Abstract: Highlight: Data analysis on the spread of COVID-19 in Bushehr, one of the warmest provinces of Iran, indicates that rising summer temperatures do not reduce the reproduction number and the spread of COVID-19.

Cited by 10 publications

References 9 publications

Weather variability and transmissibility of COVID-19: a time series analysis based on effective reproductive number

Weather variability and transmissibility of COVID-19: a time series analysis based on effective reproductive number

365 days with COVID-19 in Iran: data analysis and epidemic curves

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on severe non-SARS-CoV-2 community-acquired pneumonia in Reunion Island: a multicenter retrospective observational study, 2016–2021

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About