1. Monitoring the response of wild mammal populations to threatening processes is fundamental to effective conservation management. This is especially true for infectious diseases, which may have dynamic and therefore unpredictable interactions with their host. 2. We investigate the long-term impact of a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), on the endemic Tasmanian devil. We analyse trends in devil spot-light counts and density across the area impacted by the disease. We investigate the demographic parameters which might be driving these trends, and use spatial capture-recapture models to examine whether DFTD has affected home range size. 3. We found that devils have declined by an average of 77% in areas affected by DFTD, and that there is a congruent trend of ongoing small decline in spotlight counts and density estimates. Despite this, devils have persisted to date within each of nine monitoring sites. One site is showing as yet unexplained small increases in density 8–10 years after the emergence of DFTD. 4. We also found the prevalence of DFTD has not abated despite large declines in density and that diseased sites continue to be dominated by young devils. The long-term impact of the disease has been partially offset by increased fecundity in the form of precocial breeding in 1-year-old females, and more pouch young per female in diseased sites. The lower densities resulting from DFTD did not affect home range size. 5. Synthesis and applications. Transmission of devil facial tumour disease continues despite large declines in devil density over multiple generations. Plasticity in life history traits has ameliorated the impact of devil facial tumour disease, however broad-scale trends in density show ongoing decline. In light of this, devil facial tumour disease and the impact of stochastic events on the reduced densities wrought by the disease, continue to threaten devils. In the absence of methods to manage disease in wild populations, we advocate managing the low population densities resulting from disease rather than disease per se.
Effective ecosystem-based management requires estimates of abundance and population trends of species of interest. Trend analyses are often limited due to sparse or short-term abundance estimates for populations that can be logistically difficult to monitor over time. Therefore it is critical to assess regularly the quality of the metrics in long-term monitoring programs. For a monitoring program to provide meaningful data and remain relevant, it needs to incorporate technological improvements and the changing requirements of stakeholders, while maintaining the integrity of the data. In this paper we critically examine the monitoring program for the Australian fur seal (AFS) Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus as an example of an ad-hoc monitoring program that was co-ordinated across multiple stakeholders as a range-wide census of live pups in the Austral summers of 2002, 2007 and 2013. This 5-yearly census, combined with historic counts at individual sites, successfully tracked increasing population trends as signs of population recovery up to 2007. The 2013 census identified the first reduction in AFS pup numbers (14,248 live pups, -4.2% change per annum since 2007), however we have limited information to understand this change. We analyse the trends at breeding colonies and perform a power analysis to critically examine the reliability of those trends. We then assess the gaps in the monitoring program and discuss how we may transition this surveillance style program to an adaptive monitoring program than can evolve over time and achieve its goals. The census results are used for ecosystem-based modelling for fisheries management and emergency response planning. The ultimate goal for this program is to obtain the data we need with minimal cost, effort and impact on the fur seals. In conclusion we identify the importance of power analyses for interpreting trends, the value of regularly assessing long-term monitoring programs and proper design so that adaptive monitoring principles can be applied.
The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is a carnivorous marsupial threatened with extinction from the emergence of Devil Facial Tumour Disease. The establishment of ex situ populations is a key management action for the species. We examined the initial survival, movement pattern, home range, and habit use of six devils from a total of 15 individuals translocated to Maria Island (south-east Tasmania). A total of 14 devils (93%) survived the initial monitoring phase within this study (122 days after translocation). The maximum and minimum distance recorded during one night was 21.73 km (range = 14.12–25.40 km) and 1.94 km (range = 0.07–7.71 km), respectively, while the average nightly distance travelled varied significantly (range = 7.24–13.07 km) between individuals. Short-term home-range size (90% kernel) varied from 936 to 3501 ha, with an average of 2180 (±836) ha for all devils. The habitat preference of devils on Maria Island shows a positive association with agricultural and urban habitats, and an avoidance of wet eucalypt forest. The home range and habitat associations may change as competitive pressures increase with population growth; however, this initial research indicates that translocation as a management action is a powerful tool for the establishment of ex situ populations, assisting in the continued conservation of this species.
The foraging behaviour of conspecific female Antarctic fur seals (AFS) was compared simultaneously at 2 breeding colonies at Îles Kerguelen (S Indian Ocean). A remnant colony at ÎIes Nuageuses (IN) thought to have escaped sealing is hypothesized to be the source of increasing fur seal numbers at Cap Noir (CN) on the Kerguelen mainland. Inter-annual variability in foraging areas is known to occur in response to local oceanographic changes at CN. Given the distance between the 2 sites (~160 km), we hypothesize that seals from the 2 colonies may show spatial segregation in foraging due to variability in local prey resource availability, although the transfer of foraging knowledge between sites via emigration may override such behaviour. The foraging zones, diving activity, diet and foraging success of seals were compared between sites using satellite telemetry, dive recorders and faecal analysis. No evidence of spatial foraging overlap was observed, with seals from IN conducting longer foraging trips, typified by a longer initial transit phase, than CN seals, which spent less time diving at night and dived more deeply. Pups nevertheless received higher absolute and daily energy delivery rates at IN. Diet was superficially similar at ~98% myctophid consumption; however, IN seals favoured the high-energy Gymnoscopelus nicholsi, indicating that local heterogeneity in marine resources likely influences the foraging zone choice of AFS. Finally, distribution patterns of 54 female AFS tracked during summer months from 1998 to 2006 reveal the importance of both on-shelf (< 500 m) and shelf-break regions as foraging habitat. The core foraging area for CN in all years (10 400 km 2 ) was small (~10% of total foraging space); however, time spent in this region alone totaled 38%. The likelihood of spatial overlap in foraging range is higher on the east coast of Kerguelen. KEY WORDS: Fur seal · Segregation · Myctophid · Diving · Southern OceanResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher
Fur seal populations in the Southern Hemisphere were plundered in the late 1700s and early 1800s to provide fur for a clothing industry. Millions of seals were killed resulting in potentially major ecosystem changes across the Southern Hemisphere, the consequences of which are unknown today. Following more than a century of population suppression, partly through on-going harvesting, many of the fur seal populations started to recover in the late 1900s. Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), one of the most geographically constrained fur seal species, followed this trend. From the 1940s to 1986, pup production remained at approximately 10,000 per year, then significant growth commenced. By 2007, live pup abundance had recovered to approximately 21,400 per year and recovery was expected to continue However, a species-wide survey in 2013 recorded a 20% decline, to approximately 16,500 live pups. It was not known if this decline was due to 2013 being a poor breeding year or a true population reduction. Here we report the results of a population-wide survey conducted in 2017 and annual monitoring at the most productive colony, Seal Rocks, Victoria that recorded a large decline in live pup abundance (-28%). Sustained lower pup numbers at Seal Rocks from annual counts between 2012–2017 (mean = 2908 ± 372 SD), as well as the population-wide estimate of 16,903 live pups in 2017, suggest that the pup numbers for the total population have remained at the lower level observed in 2013 and that the 5-yearly census results are not anomalies or representative of poor breeding seasons. Potential reasons for the decline, which did not occur range-wide but predominantly in the most populated and long-standing breeding sites, are discussed. To enhance adaptive management of this species, methods for future monitoring of the population are also presented. Australian fur seals occupy several distinct regions influenced by different currents and upwellings: range-wide pup abundance monitoring enables comparisons of ecosystem status across these regions. Forces driving change in Australian fur seal pup numbers are likely to play across other marine ecosystems, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere where most fur seals live.
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