African elephants (Loxodonta africana) are imperiled by poaching and habitat loss. Despite global attention to the plight of elephants, their population sizes and trends are uncertain or unknown over much of Africa. To conserve this iconic species, conservationists need timely, accurate data on elephant populations. Here, we report the results of the Great Elephant Census (GEC), the first continent-wide, standardized survey of African savannah elephants. We also provide the first quantitative model of elephant population trends across Africa. We estimated a population of 352,271 savannah elephants on study sites in 18 countries, representing approximately 93% of all savannah elephants in those countries. Elephant populations in survey areas with historical data decreased by an estimated 144,000 from 2007 to 2014, and populations are currently shrinking by 8% per year continent-wide, primarily due to poaching. Though 84% of elephants occurred in protected areas, many protected areas had carcass ratios that indicated high levels of elephant mortality. Results of the GEC show the necessity of action to end the African elephants’ downward trajectory by preventing poaching and protecting habitat.

Context. Lion (Panthera leo Linnaeus, 1758) populations experience a range of ecological and human influences that affect their demography. Few lion populations have reliable estimates of population size, trends in these, or demographic profiles. Threats such as those imposed by diseases are thus hard to evaluate and respond to. Aims. To calibrate call-up stations and define survey effort required to achieve estimates with known precision, and extract age structures and estimate survival rates, to estimate lion numbers, sex and age structure and survival rates, and then to evaluate the effect of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) on estimates of lion density and survival. Methods.By using call-up stations, we developed a statistically robust approach to estimate selected population variables and evaluated the perceived threat of bTB in landscapes of varying prey biomass in the Kruger National Park. Key results. The size of the lion population was stable, although long intervals between present and historical estimates limit this conclusion. Density and survival rates associated positively with prey biomass, and a positive association was detected between the survival rate and bTB prevalence, with survival being higher in areas that had high prevalence of bTB. Male survival was lower than female survival, disregarding the effects of prey biomass or bTB prevalence. Body condition of lions was high, with scores lower at low to medium prey density. Conclusions. The effect of an exotic disease on the Kruger lion population may be negligible at present. Intra-specific competition in areas where lions live at high densities affects survival rate. However, droughts could disrupt the hierarchical influences of prey biomass and bTB prevalence on lion densities and survival. Implications. To evaluate the effect of an exotic disease on lion demography, population surveys should include age- and sex-structure assessments, complemented with focal studies of fecundity. This reflects the importance of understanding host–disease dynamics to inform management options.

Population size and trends of large carnivores are difficult to determine, but are often needed to inform conservation actions. Direct counts maintained over long time periods are extremely difficult to achieve. Indices of population sizes can be used to estimate large carnivore abundances, but are often case-, species-and sitespecific. Here, we test the general applicability of track-based indices to estimate large carnivore abundance. We surveyed 15 306.4 km of roads associated with 339 transects across a wide geographical scale, large range of densities and variable substrates for tracks of African large carnivores. A combined model for all carnivore species on sandy soils serves as a robust approach to predict large carnivore densities. Thus, indices based on track counts can provide useful estimates of carnivore abundance. We found consistent relationships between track densities and the actual carnivore densities, having taken account of substrate.

Conflict between people and elephants in Africa is widespread yet many solutions target the symptoms, rather than the underlying causes, of this conflict. To manage this conflict better the underlying causes of the problem need to be examined. Here we examine factors underlying spatial use by elephants and people along the Okavango Panhandle in Ngamiland, northern Botswana, to provide ways to address the causes of the conflict between elephants and people. We found that (1) elephant spatial use was a function of season, (2) spatial use did not differ between breeding herds and bull groups, (3) spatial use by elephants and people only overlapped significantly at night, during the dry season, (4) crop raiding by elephants was a function of season and social grouping, and (5) crop raiding by elephants had social and economic implications. Based on these results we suggest measures to manipulate elephant spatial use to reduce the causes of this conflict. We also reflect on present compensation measures for elephant crop damage and advocate that a more direct performance payment approach may benefit both the Botswana Government and local farmers.

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The rehabilitation program conducted by Richards Bay Minerals (RBM) of areas exposed to opencast surface mining of sand dunes north of Richards Bay (28°43'S, 32°12'E) on the coast of northern KwaZulu‐Natal Province commenced 16 years before this study and has resulted in the development of a series of known‐aged stands of vegetation. By assuming that these spatially separated stands develop along a similar pathway over time, instantaneous sampling should reveal successional or other changes usually associated with aging and should provide an opportunity to evaluate the success of rehabilitation. We compare relative densities of pioneer and secondary species, species richness, and a similarity index of the herbaceous layer, tree, beetle, millipede, bird, and small‐mammal communities of rehabilitating areas of known age with those of 30‐year‐old unmined forests and unmined forests of unknown age adjacent to the rehabilitating area. Species richness for all but the mammalian taxa increased with increasing age of rehabilitating stands. For all taxa but the mammals and herbaceous layer, the unmined stands harbored more species than the mined rehabilitating stands. The relative densities of pioneer species of all the taxa decreased with an increase in the age of rehabilitating stands, whereas those of the secondary species increased with an increase in habitat age. Similarity between unmined stands and rehabilitating stands of different ages increased with increasing regeneration age of rehabilitating stands, suggesting that rehabilitating communities, in terms of species composition and relative densities, are developing towards the status of unmined communities. Rehabilitation based on RBM's management program of limited interference is occurring and may result in the reestablishment of a coastal dune forest ecosystem. But rehabilitation resulting from succession depends on the availability of species sources from which colonization can take place. In the Richards Bay mining operation the present mining path is laid out so that such refuges are present.

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Understanding the population dynamics of savanna elephants depends on estimating population parameters such as the age at first reproduction, calving interval and age-specific survival rates. The generation of these parameters, however, relies on the ability to determine accurately the age of individuals, but a reliable age estimation technique for free-ranging elephants is presently not available. Shoulder heights of elephants were measured in 10 populations in five countries across southern and eastern Africa. Data included shoulder height measurements from two populations where the age of each individual was known (i.e. Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa and Amboseli National Park, Kenya). From the known-age data, Von Bertalanffy growth functions were constructed for both male and female elephants. Savanna elephants were found to attain similar asymptotic shoulder heights in the 10 populations, while individuals in the two known-age populations grew at the same rate. The Von Bertalanffy growth curves allowed for the accurate age estimation of females up to 15 years of age and males up to 36 years of age. The results indicate that shoulder height can serve as an indicator of chronological age for elephants below 15 years of age for females and 36 years of age for males. Ages derived from these growth curves can then be used to generate age-specific population variables, which will help assess the demographic status of savanna elephant populations across Africa