African elephants (Loxodonta africana) are imperiled by poaching and habitat loss. Despite global attention to the plight of elephants, their population sizes and trends are uncertain or unknown over much of Africa. To conserve this iconic species, conservationists need timely, accurate data on elephant populations. Here, we report the results of the Great Elephant Census (GEC), the first continent-wide, standardized survey of African savannah elephants. We also provide the first quantitative model of elephant population trends across Africa. We estimated a population of 352,271 savannah elephants on study sites in 18 countries, representing approximately 93% of all savannah elephants in those countries. Elephant populations in survey areas with historical data decreased by an estimated 144,000 from 2007 to 2014, and populations are currently shrinking by 8% per year continent-wide, primarily due to poaching. Though 84% of elephants occurred in protected areas, many protected areas had carcass ratios that indicated high levels of elephant mortality. Results of the GEC show the necessity of action to end the African elephants’ downward trajectory by preventing poaching and protecting habitat.

2005. Elephants in space and time. Á/ Oikos 109: 331 Á/341.Autocorrelation in animal movements can be both a serious nuisance to analysis and a source of valuable information about the scale and patterns of animal behavior, depending on the question and the techniques employed. In this paper we present an approach to analyzing the patterns of autocorrelation in animal movements that provides a detailed picture of seasonal variability in the scale and patterns of movement. We used a combination of moving window Mantel correlograms, surface correlation and crosscorrelation analysis to investigate the scales and patterns of autocorrelation in the movements of three herds of elephants in northern Botswana. Patterns of autocorrelation of elephant movements were long-range, temporally complicated, seasonally variable, and closely linked with the onset of rainfall events. Specifically, for the three elephant herds monitored there was often significant autocorrelation among locations up to lags of 30 days or more. During many seasonal periods there was no indication of decreasing autocorrelation with increasing time between locations. Over the course of the year, herds showed highly variable and complex patterns of autocorrelation, ranging from random use of temporary home ranges, periodic use of focal areas, and directional migration. Even though the patterns of autocorrelation were variable in time and quite complex, there were highly significant correlations among the autocorrelation patterns of the different herds, indicating that they exhibited similar patterns of movement through the year. These major patterns of autocorrelation seem to be related to patterns of rainfall. The strength of correlation in movement patterns of the different herds decreased markedly at the cessation of major rain events. Also, there was a strong crosscorrelation between strength of autocorrelation of movement and rainfall, peaking at time lags of between three and four weeks. Overall, these approaches provide a powerful way to explore the scales and patterns of autocorrelation of animal movements, and to explicitly link those patterns to temporally variable environmental attributes, such as rainfall or vegetation phenology.

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We studied Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) in northern New Hampshire during 1992 and 1993 to determine whether edge‐related changes in habitat use and reproductive success reported in fragmented landscapes exist in predominantly forested landscapes. Six study plots were placed adjacent to four recent clearcuts (2.1–5 ha) and extended 400 m into the forest interior. Nests, territories, and territorial males obtaining mates were equally distributed in edge (0–200 m) and interior (201–400 m) areas. Nest survival was higher in the forest interior in 1992 and for 1992 and 1993 combined. The proportion of pairs fledging ≥ 1 young, fledgling weight, and fledgling wing‐chord did not differ between edge and interior in either year. Number of young fledged per pair was slightly lower in edge areas, but these differences were not significant. We conclude that clearcutting in extensively forested landscapes can affect Ovenbird reproductive success. Nevertheless, the effect on Ovenbird populations is moderated by the abundance of mature forest cover in the region and by the tendency of Ovenbirds to renest after initial nest failure.

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In the northeastern United States, pitch pine ( Pinus rigida Mill.)-scrub oak (Quercus ilicifoliaWang.) communities are increasingly threatened by development and fire suppression, and prioritization of these habitats for conservation is of critical importance. As a basis for local conservation planning in a pitch pine-scrub oak community in southeastern Massachusetts, we developed logistic-regression models based on multiscale landscape and patch variables to predict hotspots of rare and declining bird and moth species. We compared predicted moth distributions with observed species-occurrence records to validate the models. We then quantified the amount of overlap between hotspots to assess the utility of rare birds and moths as indicator taxa. Species representation in hotspots and the current level of hotspot protection were also assessed. Predictive models included variables at all measured scales and resulted in average correct classification rates (optimal cut point) of 85.6% and 89.2% for bird and moth models, respectively. The majority of moth occurrence records were within 100 m of predicted habitat. Only 13% of all bird hotspots and 10% of all moth hotspots overlapped, and only a few small patches in and around Myles Standish State Forest were predicted to be hotspots for both taxa. There was no correlation between the bird and moth species-richness maps across all levels of richness (r = −0.03, p = 0.62). Species representation in hotspots was high, but most hotspots had limited or no protection. Given the lack of correspondence between bird and moth hotspots, our results suggest that use of species-richness indicators for conservation planning may be ineffective at local scales. Based on these results, we suggest that local-level conservation planning in pitch pine-scrub oak communities be based on multitaxa, multiscale approaches.Resumen: En el noreste de Estados Unidos, las comunidades de pino (Pinus rigida Mill.)-encino (Quercus ilicifolia Wang.) están cada vez más amenazadas por el desarrollo y la supresión de fuego y la priorización de esos hábitats es de importancia crítica. Como una base para la planeación de conservación local de una comunidad de pino-encino en el sureste de Massachussets, desarrollamos modelos de regresión logística con base en variables a nivel de paisaje multiescala y de fragmento para predecir lasáreas críticas para especies de aves y polillas raras y en declinación. Para validar los modelos comparamos las distribuciones esperadas de polillas con registros observados de la ocurrencia de especies. Posteriormente cuantificamos el traslape entré areas críticas para evaluar la utilidad de aves y polillas raras como taxa indicadores. Los modelos predictivos incluyeron variables en todas las escalas consideradas y resultaron en tasas promedio de clasificación correcta (punto de corteóptimo) de 85.6% y 89.2% para modelos de aves y polillas, respectivamente. La mayoría de los registros de ocurrencia de polillas estuvo dentro de 100 m del hábitat predicho. Sólo hubo traslape en 13%...

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