Most mathematical models of disease assume that transmission is linearly dependent on the densities of host and pathogen. Recent data for animal diseases, however, have cast doubt on this assumption, without assessing the usefulness of alternative models. In this article, we use a combination of laboratory dose-response experiments, field transmission experiments, and observations of naturally occurring populations to show that virus transmission in gypsy moths is a nonlinear function of virus density, apparently because of heterogeneity among individual gypsy moth larvae in their susceptibility to the virus. Dose-response experiments showed that larvae from a laboratory colony of gypsy moths are substantially less heterogeneous in their susceptibility to the virus than are larvae from feral populations, and field experiments showed that there is a more strongly nonlinear relationship between transmission and virus density for feral larvae than for lab larvae. This nonlinearity in transmission changes the dynamics of the virus in natural populations so that a model incorporating host heterogeneity in susceptibility to the virus gives a much better fit to data on virus dynamics from large-scale field plots than does a classical model that ignores host heterogeneity. Our results suggest that heterogeneity among individuals has important effects on the dynamics of disease in insects at several spatial and temporal scales and that heterogeneity in susceptibility may be of general importance in the ecology of disease.

Low-density populations of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, were studied over a 10-yr period in Massachusetts. Increases in gypsy moth density were associated with declines in density of the white-footed mouse, Peromyscus leucopus, a principal predator. Furthermore, changes in density of P. leucopus populations were positively correlated with the density of acorn crops, a dominant winter food source for these mice. To demonstrate these effects we used a novel bootstrap regression method that adjusts for spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the time series data. The findings are compatible with a dual equilibrium model of gypsy moth population dynamics, in which low densities are regulated by mice and high densities are regulated by other factors, notably a virus disease.

In this Paper, we have derived Cepheid period-luminosity (P-L) relations for the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) fundamental mode Cepheids, based on the data released from OGLE-III. We have applied an extinction map to correct for the extinction of these Cepheids. In addition to the V IW band P-L relations, we also include JHK and four Spitzer IRAC band P-L relations, derived by matching the OGLE-III Cepheids to the 2MASS and SAGE datasets, respectively. We also test the non-linearity of the Cepheid P-L relations based on extinction-corrected data. Our results (again) show that the LMC P-L relations are non-linear in V IJH bands and linear in KW and the four IRAC bands, respectively.

Adelges tsugae , Climate change, Hemlock, Invasive species, Woolly adelgid,

Patterns of habitat use by some passerines change after the young leave the nest, and thus our understanding of habitat selection derived from counts of singing males earlier in the nesting cycle may not adequately represent the breeding habitat requirements of these species. Post-fledging changes in habitat use may have important conservation implications if the survival of fledglings is affected by characteristics of the habitat; however, there have been relatively few systematic studies of the post-fledging ecology of forest passerines and, of these, even fewer have incorporated analyses of the relationship between habitat characteristics and fledgling survival. We studied the post-fledging habitat selection and survival of ovenbirds Seiurus aurocapilla in northern New Hampshire, USA during two breeding seasons using radio telemetry. Habitat at sites used by radio-marked fledgling ovenbirds was characterized by fewer large trees and greater vertical structure 0-3 m above ground than ovenbird nest sites. Similarly, habitat at sites used by fledgling ovenbirds was characterized by fewer large trees and greater vertical structure than unused sites. Most (80%) of the 15 mortalities that we observed were due to predation. Nine (70%) of these occurred within the first 3 days of fledging, resulting in a significant drop in survival during this period. Fledgling survival increased significantly with increased vegetation structure. Our observations that fledgling ovenbirds are selective in their habitat use, that they select different habitat features than adult ovenbirds select for nesting and that fledgling survival is positively associated with these habitat features suggest that the use of habitat models based on counts of singing males before fledging does not adequately represent the habitat needs of this species. Conceivably, mortality during the postfledging period could limit recruitment to levels insufficient to maintain the viability of ovenbird population even if adequate nesting habitat were available.