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This article reanalyzes the data of a previous study on the policy impact of antinuclear, ecology, and peace movements in three countries with the aim of replicating its findings. Our goal is to see whether using a different analytical technique will yield similar results. The previous study used a regression approach to time-series analysis. Here, we use qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to analyze the previous study's data. Specifically, we test the two main hypotheses based on the joint-effect model of social movement outcomes: (1) that the policy impact of social movements is conditioned by the presence of powerful allies within the institutional arenas, by the presence of a favorable public opinion, and/or by both factors simultaneously; and (2) that social movements are more likely to have policy impacts when they address issues and policy domains of low saliency. In addition, we compare the policy impact of social movements across countries. Our analysis confirms to a large extent the findings of the earlier time-series analysis, namely, the strong explanatory power of the jointeffect model of social movement outcomes and the varying impact of different movements on public policy.

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The impacts of social movements on public policies have been studied extensively yet yield mixed results. Some results point to a strong impact of social movements, while others conclude that they do not possess any observable leverage on public policies. These mixed results may be linked to utilization of different methodological approaches. However, few studies have considered the possibility that movements may in fact prevent policy change. In this study, we argue that for high-profile policies such as nuclear energy, a low-key social mobilization is in some instances necessary for the occurrence of major policy changes. We further hypothesize that highly mobilized social movements may dampen the chance of major policy changes instead of promoting them. We briefly present the general model and the data before proceeding to the bounded exploratory analysis. This analysis raises questions about the role played by antinuclear movements in their quest for a major policy change. A theoretical explanation is then presented in an attempt to contribute to the clarification of the movement-policy debate.

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