Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture-recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624-1026 km(2) with 137-200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood-based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km(2) , abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture-recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82-90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low-density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade.

Tigers Panthera tigris are highly threatened and continue to decline across their entire range. Actions to restore and conserve populations need to be based on science but, in South-east Asia, information on ecology and behaviour of tigers is lacking. This study reports the relationship between the home range size of female tigers and prey abundance, using data from radio-collared tigers in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand, and published data from other studies. A total of 11 tigers, four males and seven females, were fitted with global positioning system collars, to estimate home ranges using 95 and 100% minimum convex polygons (MCP). Prey abundance was estimated by faecal accumulation rates. The mean home range size of male tigers was 267 and 294 km 2 based on 95 and 100% MCPs, respectively; the mean female home range size was 70 and 84 km 2 , respectively. Territories of male and female tigers had little overlap, which indicated both sexes were territorial. Mean densities of the prey species sambar Rusa unicolor, barking deer Muntiacus muntjac and large bovids were 7.5, 3.5 and 3.0 km −2 , respectively. When female home range size and prey abundance were compared at six locations in Thailand, and at other sites in India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Russia, a significant negative correlation was found between prey abundance and home range size. Monitoring this relationship can provide managers with metrics for setting conservation goals.

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We used capture-recapture analyses to estimate the density of a tiger Panthera tigris population in the tropical forests of Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand, from photographic capture histories of 15 distinct individuals. The closure test results (z = 0.39, P = 0.65) provided some evidence in support of the demographic closure assumption. Fit of eight plausible closed models to the data indicated more support for model Mh, which incorporates individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities. This model generated an average capture probability $\hat p$ = 0.42 and an abundance estimate of $\widehat{N}(\widehat{SE}[\widehat{N}])$ = 19 (9.65) tigers. The sampled area of $\widehat{A}(W)(\widehat{SE}[\widehat{A}(W)])$ = 477.2 (58.24) km2 yielded a density estimate of $\widehat{D}(\widehat{SE}[\widehat{D}])$ = 3.98 (0.51) tigers per 100 km2. Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary could therefore hold 113 tigers and the entire Western Forest Complex c. 720 tigers. Although based on field protocols that constrained us to use sub-optimal analyses, this estimated tiger density is comparable to tiger densities in Indian reserves that support moderate prey abundances. However, tiger densities in well-protected Indian reserves with high prey abundances are three times higher. If given adequate protection we believe that the Western Forest Complex of Thailand could potentially harbour >2,000 wild tigers, highlighting its importance for global tiger conservation. The monitoring approaches we recommend here would be useful for managing this tiger population.