Crop yield prediction is of great importance for decision making, yet it remains an ongoing scientific challenge. Interactions among different genetic, environmental, and management factors and uncertainty in input values are making crop yield prediction complex. Building upon a previous work in which we coupled crop modeling with machine learning (ML) models to predict maize yields for three US Corn Belt states, here, we expand the concept to the entire US Corn Belt (12 states). More specifically, we built five new ML models and their ensemble models, considering the scenarios with and without crop modeling variables. Additional input values in our models are soil, weather, management, and historical yield data. A unique aspect of our work is the spatial analysis to investigate causes for low or high model prediction errors. Our results indicated that the prediction accuracy increases by coupling crop modeling with machine learning. The ensemble model overperformed the individual ML models, having a relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of about 9% for the test years (2018, 2019, and 2020), which is comparable to previous studies. In addition, analysis of the sources of error revealed that counties and crop reporting districts with low cropland ratios have high RRMSE. Furthermore, we found that soil input data and extreme weather events were responsible for high errors in some regions. The proposed models can be deployed for large-scale prediction at the county level and, contingent upon data availability, can be utilized for field level prediction.
Technology advancement has contributed significantly to productivity improvement in the agricultural sector. However, field operation and farm resource utilization remain a challenge. For major row crops, designing an optimal crop planting strategy is crucial since the planting dates are contingent upon weather conditions and storage capacity. This manuscript proposes a two-stage decision support system to optimize planting decisions, considering weather uncertainties and resource constraints. The first stage involves creating a weather prediction model for Growing Degree Units (GDUs). In the second stage, the GDUs prediction from the first stage is incorporated to formulate an optimization model for the planting schedule. The efficacy of the proposed model is demonstrated through a case study based on Syngenta Crop Challenge (2021). It has been shown that the 1D-CNN model outperforms other prediction models with an RRMSE of 7 to 8% for two different locations. The decision-making model in the second stage provides an optimal planting schedule such that weekly harvested quantities will be evenly allocated utilizing a minimum number of harvesting weeks. We analyzed the model performance for two scenarios: fixed and flexible storage capacity at multiple geographic locations. Results suggest that the proposed model can provide an optimized planting schedule considering planting window and storage capacity. The model has also demonstrated its robustness under multiple scenarios.
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