Reliable modeling of novel commutative cases of COVID-19 (CCC) is essential for determining hospitalization needs and providing the benchmark for health-related policies. The current study proposes multi-regional modeling of CCC cases for the first scenario using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) based on automatic routines (AUTOARIMA), ARIMA with maximum likelihood (ARIMAML), and ARIMA with generalized least squares method (ARIMAGLS) and ensembled (ARIMAML-ARIMAGLS). Subsequently, different deep learning (DL) models viz: long short-term memory (LSTM), random forest (RF), and ensemble learning (EML) were applied to the second scenario to predict the effect of forest knowledge (FK) during the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) unit root tests, autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), Schwarz information criterion (SIC), and residual diagnostics were considered in determining the best ARIMA model for cumulative COVID-19 cases (CCC) across multi-region countries. Seven different performance criteria were used to evaluate the accuracy of the models. The obtained results justified both types of ARIMA model, with ARIMAGLS and ensemble ARIMA demonstrating superiority to the other models. Among the DL models analyzed, LSTM-M1 emerged as the best and most reliable estimation model, with both RF and LSTM attaining more than 80% prediction accuracy. While the EML of the DL proved merit with 96% accuracy. The outcomes of the two scenarios indicate the superiority of ARIMA time series and DL models in further decision making for FK.
<p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>This study operationalizes the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) to investigate the preparedness of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) members to form a Monetary Union (MU). Inflation and output models are estimated, with the sample 1988:01 to 2017:12 for the former and 1967 to 2016 for the latter. Analyses of ECOWAS convergence criteria, impulse responses, variance decompositions and correlations of shocks of these two models, reveal that the shocks across the ECOWAS members are asymmetric. The conclusion is that ECOWAS members as a whole are not well-prepared and therefore a full-fledged pan-ECOWAS MU is not advisable. It is also found that members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) tend to be a better fit for OCA than the ECOWAS members. The study recommends various courses of action such as fostering coordination among Central Banks of ECOWAS members, and providing a fund to serve as an incentive for countries that may incur cost rather than benefit if the single currency is created.</p><p> </p><p align="center"><strong><strong>LA MONEDA COMÚN DE LA ECOWAS: ¿CUÁN PREPARADOS ESTÁN SUS MIEMBROS?</strong></strong></p><p align="center"><strong>RESUMEN</strong></p>Utilizamos el Área Monetaria Óptima (AMO) para indagar cuán preparados están los miembros de la Comunidad Económica de Estados de África Occidental (ECOWAS, <em>Economic Community of West African States</em>) para formar una Unión Monetaria (UM). Estimamos modelos de inflación y producto con datos de 1988:01-2017 y 1967-2016 respectivamente. Los análisis de criterios de convergencia, impulso-respuesta, descomposición de varianza y correlación de choques de estos modelos revelan que los choques entre estos países son asimétricos. Concluimos que estos países no están bien preparados y, por tanto, una UM pan-ECOWAS no es aconsejable. Además, los integrantes de la Unión Monetaria Europea (UME) tienden a satisfacer mejor una AMO que los de ECOWAS. Nuestro análisis recomienda fortalecer la coordinación entre los bancos centrales de la ECOWAS y un fondo que incentive a los países que incurran en costos en lugar de beneficios si se crea la moneda única.<p align="center"> </p>
Unlike previous studies, the current study uses oil price and inflationary shocks to assess the feasibility of actualizing the ECOWAS Vision 2020, which is aimed at creating a monetary union. With the help of the Blanchard and Quah (BQ) decomposition for a sample from 1975:05 to 2018:08, two sets of models are estimated: models for inflationary shocks and models for oil price shocks. It is found that although the vision is a mirage, the creation of a common currency can serve as a shock absorber against the negative spillovers of global and regional inflationary shocks. The study also finds that oil price shocks lead to appreciation of the currency for the oil exporting country Nigeria, while Nigeria, The Gambia and Ghana stand out in their responses to oil price shocks. The study recommends that these countries cannot be part of the Vision and that more coordination among ECOWAS members is needed before this Vision can be actualised.
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