Do as your neighbours do? Assessing the impact of lockdown and reopening on the active COVID-19 cases in Nigeria

Mati, Sagiru

doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113645

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(27 reference statements)

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“…Although previous studies are consistent with the findings of Post et al that the point of change in the daily effective contact rate overlapped with the moment of government response [ 14 ], Lai et al found that if the government’s response had been implemented earlier, the number of COVID-19 cases could have been reduced [ 4 ]. Other scholars have analysed the impact of strict quarantine measures versus reopening public places on the early spread of COVID-19 [ 58 ], including COVID-19 infection and mortality rates [ 17 , 19 , 58 , 59 , 60 , 61 , 62 ]. Although many studies have shown that both early and severe prevention and control policies, as well as later, lenient intervention strategies, inhibited the spread of COVID-19, they have neglected the possibility that an early government response may also have had a sustained effect on the COVID-19 infection rate in later stages.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustained Effects of Government Response on the COVID-19 Infection Rate in China: A Multiple Mediation Analysis

Duan

Zhou

Shi

2021

IJERPH

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Many scholars have considered the relationship between the government response to COVID-19, an important social intervention strategy, and the COVID-19 infection rate. However, few have examined the sustained impact of an early government response on the COVID-19 infection rate. The current paper fills this gap by investigating a national survey performed in February 2020 and infection data from Chinese cities surveyed 1.5 years after the outbreak of COVID-19. The results suggest that the Chinese government’s early response to COVID-19 significantly and sustainedly reduced China’s COVID-19 infection rate, and that this impact worked through risk perception, the adoption of protective action recommendations (PARs), and the chain-mediating effects of risk perception and the adoption of PARs, respectively. These findings have important practical value. In demonstrating how government response and infection rate at the macro level are connected to the behaviour of individuals at the micro level, they suggest feasible directions for curbing the spread of diseases such as COVID-19. When facing such public health emergencies, the focus should be on increasing the public’s risk perception and adoption of PARs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustained Effects of Government Response on the COVID-19 Infection Rate in China: A Multiple Mediation Analysis

Duan

Zhou

Shi

2021

IJERPH

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“…According to several authors including [38], [39], [40], the water levels can be expressed as an ARIMA(p,1,q) process mainly due to the reason that they are all integrated of order one. To determine the optimal values for p and q, the combination that results in the lowest SIC with whitenoise errors was chosen.…”

Section: Estimated Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Stress Management Based on Groundwater Depletion Estimation in Saudi Arabia: A Hybrid ARIMA-GLS Approach

Abba,

Shah,

Yassin

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Water scarcity is a pressing global challenge, and arid regions like Saudi Arabia face the urgent need for effective water stress management. The current study proposes an innovative method to tackle this issue by utilizing a hybrid time series analysis model, comprising of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) techniques to estimate groundwater depletion trends in Saudi Arabia. The research employs historical groundwater data, climatic variables, and socioeconomic indicators to formulate comprehensive insight of the factors influencing groundwater depletion. The ARIMA component of the hybrid model captures the temporal dynamics of groundwater levels, while GLS considers the spatial and cross-correlation dependencies among observation points, enhancing the accuracy of depletion estimates. The study also demonstrates the significance of climatic variability and socioeconomic factors in exacerbating water stress in the region. Furthermore, the hybrid ARIMA-GLS model offers a robust tool for forecasting future groundwater depletion trends, aiding proactive decision-making in mitigating water stress. The numerical results for different wells proved to be essential in assessing the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). For instance, the MAPE values were found to be as (i) hybrid ARIMA-CLS (MAPE = 0.1507), (ii) ARIMA-CLS (MAPE = 0.429834), (iii) ARIMA-CLS (MAPE = 0.109115) for 4-H-84-N, 4-H-86-U, 4-S-316-U, respectively with the expectation of (iv) ARI (MAPE = 6.0285) for DA-45-U well. It is therefore believed that this research contributes to the broader discussion on managing the water resource in arid regions and highlights the significance of integrated approaches that consider both temporal and spatial dimensions. Further, it offers valuable insights and a practical framework for addressing water stress challenges in Saudi Arabia and serves as a model for water management in other arid regions grappling with similar issues.

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“…Lockdowns restricted human mobility [3,4], and, thus, the spread of the virus. The global evidence suggests that strict mobility restrictions reduced COVID-19 cases and COVID-19-related deaths [5][6][7][8] in high-income [9][10][11] as well as low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) [12]. The localized lockdowns were also impactful, especially during the resurgence of the pandemic after July 2020 [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?

2023

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Introduction: Maharashtra, India, remained a hotspot during the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial complete lockdown, the state slowly relaxed restrictions. We aim to estimate the lockdown’s impact on COVID-19 cases and associated healthcare costs. Methods: Using daily case data for 84 days (9 March–31 May 2020), we modeled the epidemic’s trajectory and predicted new cases for different phases of lockdown. We fitted log-linear models to estimate the growth rate, basic (R0), daily reproduction number (Re), and case doubling time. Based on pre-restriction and Phase 1 R0, we predicted new cases for the rest of the restriction phases, and we compared them with the actual number of cases during each phase. Furthermore, using the published and gray literature, we estimated the costs and savings of implementing these restrictions for the projected period, and we performed a sensitivity analysis. Results: The estimated median R0 during the different phases was 1.14 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.45) for pre-lockdown, 1.67 (95% CI: 1.50, 1.82) for phase 1 (strict mobility restrictions), 1.24 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.35) for phase 2 (extension of phase 1 with no restrictions on agricultural and essential services), 1.12 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.23) for phase 3 (extension of phase 2 with mobility relaxations in areas with few infections), and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.123) for phase 4 (implementation of localized lockdowns in high-case-load areas with fewer restrictions on other areas), respectively. The corresponding doubling time rate for cases (in days) was 17.78 (95% CI: 5.61, −15.19), 3.87 (95% CI: 3.15, 5.00), 10.37 (95% CI: 7.10, 19.30), 20.31 (95% CI: 10.70, 212.50), and 45.56 (95% CI: 20.50, –204.52). For the projected period, the cases could have reached 631,819 without the lockdown, as the actual reported number of cases was 64,975. From a healthcare perspective, the estimated total value of averted cases was INR 194.73 billion (USD 2.60 billion), resulting in net cost savings of 84.05%. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) for implementing the lockdown, rather than observing the natural course of the pandemic, was INR 33,812.15 (USD 450.83). Conclusion: Maharashtra’s early public health response delayed the pandemic and averted new cases and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic. However, we recommend that such restrictions be carefully used while considering the local socio-economic realities in countries like India.

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Do as your neighbours do? Assessing the impact of lockdown and reopening on the active COVID-19 cases in Nigeria

Cited by 10 publications

References 28 publications

Sustained Effects of Government Response on the COVID-19 Infection Rate in China: A Multiple Mediation Analysis

Sustained Effects of Government Response on the COVID-19 Infection Rate in China: A Multiple Mediation Analysis

Water Stress Management Based on Groundwater Depletion Estimation in Saudi Arabia: A Hybrid ARIMA-GLS Approach

COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?

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