Air pollution is one of the major issues in urban management. City managers and planners pay a great deal of attention to this problem given its harmful effect on people’s health and the environment. This paper proposes a simulated model of the pollution level of the capital city of Tehran along with its source and outcomes based on system dynamics. First, it provides a comprehensive review of the sources of greenhouse emission along with the impact of natural factors on its growth. The data is collected from 2011 to 2021. Then a dynamic model is applied to simulate Tehran’s air pollution for twenty years (from 2011 to 2031). The statistical method of design of experiments (DoE) is considered to set the sensitive and controllable variables of the city’s pollution. The information is used to set plans to reduce the air pollution considering several scenarios. The results of the research show that the best strategy to reduce air pollution that can resolve other issues as well is to manufacture environmentally friendly cars that can rely on renewable energy resources as their fuels. The other highly important strategy is to preserve forests.
Water shortage and its interconnected and integrated management is one of the life crises in recent years. Factors such as population growth, plurality of population needs, traditional farming methods, climate change, and water waste are among the contributing factors to this crisis. The complexity of water sources and consumption systems makes the management and decision-making related to this resource very difficult. This research aims to study the effective factors in the water sources and consumption system of Rafsanjan city and suggests a simulated model of water shortage and its causes. In this research, water shortage crises were simulated using system dynamics. Important variables of the water shortage crisis are identified and optimized using the Design of Experiments (DOE) method. Vensim software was considered to illustrate the simulations of five scenarios aiming at better managing water resources and dealing with the water shortage crisis in this city.
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