Analyzing Tehran’s Air Pollution Using System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

Air pollution is one of the major issues in urban management. City managers and planners pay a great deal of attention to this problem given its harmful effect on people’s health and the environment. This paper proposes a simulated model of the pollution level of the capital city of Tehran along with its source and outcomes based on system dynamics. First, it provides a comprehensive review of the sources of greenhouse emission along with the impact of natural factors on its growth. The data is collected from 2011 to 2021. Then a dynamic model is applied to simulate Tehran’s air pollution for twenty years (from 2011 to 2031). The statistical method of design of experiments (DoE) is considered to set the sensitive and controllable variables of the city’s pollution. The information is used to set plans to reduce the air pollution considering several scenarios. The results of the research show that the best strategy to reduce air pollution that can resolve other issues as well is to manufacture environmentally friendly cars that can rely on renewable energy resources as their fuels. The other highly important strategy is to preserve forests.

Analysis of Carbon Emission Projections and Reduction Potential of Resource-Dependent Urban Agglomerations from the Perspective of Multiple Scenarios—A Case Study of Hu-Bao-O-Yu Urban Agglomeration

“…It is a quantitative approach based on the feedback control theory and uses numerical simulation to study complex socio-economic systems, allowing for system analysis and forecasting in the medium and long term [32,33]. This method can explain the behaviour patterns of the system determined by the feedback mechanism among the elements within the system, simulate the dynamic development of complex systems such as the urbanisation development system [34] and air pollution system [35], and further improve the structure and function of the system based on this [36,37]. System dynamics is an integrated simulation and prediction model, the greatest advantage of which is that it can avoid the one-sidedness of low-dimensional and single predictions and is suitable for dealing with non-linear and long-term problems of more complex systems.…”

Assessment of pollutants emitted by automobile exhaust on some physiological variables of the exposed people in the city of Kirkuk

“…The problem of pollution has attracted a great attention for its harmful effects on human health and the environment, and because air is necessary to preserve human life and other creatures on the globe (Shahsavari-Pour, Bahador, Heydari, & Fekih, 2022), as air pollution reduces renewable and non-renewable natural resources and poses a danger to the future generations (Ashour & Wahab, 2016). Any imbalance in the air ecosystem as a result of releasing a large amount of gases and particles that exceeds the system's ability to self-purify causes a significant change in the properties and elements of the air (Majaji, 2018).…”