The Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration is an important energy exporting and high-end chemical base in China, and is an important source of carbon emissions in China. The early achievement of peak carbon emissions in this region is particularly crucial to achieving the national carbon emission reduction targets. However, there is a lack of multi-factor system dynamics analysis of resource-dependent urban agglomerations in Northwest China, as most studies have focused on single or static aspects of developed urban agglomerations. This paper analyses the relationship between carbon emissions and their influencing factors, constructs a carbon emission system dynamics model for the Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration, and sets up different single regulation and comprehensive regulation scenarios to simulate and predict the carbon peak time, peak value, and emission reduction potential of each city and urban agglomeration under different scenarios. The results show that: (1) Hohhot and Baotou are expected to reach peak carbon by 2033 and 2031 respectively, under the baseline scenario, while other regions and the urban agglomeration will not be able to reach peak carbon by 2035. (2) Under single regulation scenarios, the effect of factors other than the energy consumption varies across cities, but the energy consumption and environmental protection input are the main factors affecting carbon emissions in the urban agglomeration. (3) A combination of the economic growth, industrial structure, energy policy, environmental protection, and technology investment is the best measure to achieve carbon peaking and enhance the carbon emission reduction in each region as soon as possible. In the future, we need to coordinate the economic development, energy structure optimisation and transformation, low-carbon transformation of industry, strengthen research on carbon sequestration technology, and further increase the investment in environmental protection to make the Hu-Bao-O-Yu urban agglomeration a resource-saving urban agglomeration with an optimal emission reduction.
As a high-quality and sustainable growth model, green development has different economic, ecological, and social dimensions and is strategically important for the realization of modern city construction and the sustainable development of human society. The low-carbon city pilot policy (LCCP) is an innovative initiative for promoting green urban development and building a harmonious society in China. Based on balanced panel data from 277 prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2020, this paper measures the level of urban green development in terms of three dimensions: green economic growth, ecological welfare enhancement, and social welfare increase. This paper also adopts a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) method for investigating the impact of LCCP on green development with the panel dataset. The results of the study show that: (1) LCCP is generally beneficial to urban green development, and the results still hold after a series of robustness check analyses. (2) The results of the mechanism analysis show that the construction of low-carbon cities has improved the level of green technology innovation, thereby promoting the level of regional green development. Environmental regulation has a masking effect between low-carbon city construction and green development in this study. When environmental regulation is controlled for, the coefficient of the effect of LCCP on green development increases, reflecting that environmental regulation also plays an important role between the two. (3) According to the geographical location, whether it is a resource-based city, and the city cluster, we found that the low-carbon city pilot policy has a significant positive role in promoting green development in the central region, non-resource-based cities, and the Jing-Jin-Ji, but not in the eastern region, the western region, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. We also found that in resource-based cities, this effect presents a significant negative relationship. The above findings enrich the literature on low-carbon city pilot policies and green development and provide Empirical evidence for relevant countries and regions to carry out low-carbon city pilots.
As a raw material for clean energy supply for the new generation, the soybean is conducive to the realization of global energy transition and sustainable development in the context of “carbon neutrality”. However, global warming has been affecting soybean yields in recent years. How to clarify the correlation between meteorological factors and soybean yields, so as to ensure the security of soybean growth and development and the stability of renewable energy development, is a key concern of the government and academia. Based on the data of temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and active accumulated temperature during the soybean growing season in Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1951 to 2019, and soybean yield data of the city from 1985 to 2019, this paper adopted statistical methods such as the Trend Analysis Method, the Rescaled Range Analysis Method and so on to analyze the trends of yield changes, characteristics of abrupt changes and periodic patterns of climate factors and soybean yields in Hulunbuir. A Pearson Correlation Analysis and a Grey Relation Analysis were used to explore the correlation between climatic factors and soybean yields, followed by a comprehensive impact model of the combined effect of temperature and precipitation on soybean yields established by the Method of Integral Regression. The results showed that temperature and active accumulated temperature are the dominant factors affecting soybean yields in Hulunbuir, while the decrease in precipitation is unfavorable to the improvement of soybean yields. Meanwhile, temperature and precipitation have different effects on the growth and development of the soybean at different stages. The conclusion of this paper is of great practical significance for Hulunbuir to promote the sustainable development of clean energy.
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