[1] This paper reports on the canopy layer urban heat island (UHI) and human comfort in a range of small to large cities and villages in the Netherlands. To date, this subject has not been substantially studied in the Netherlands, since it has a relatively mild oceanic (Cfb) climate and impact was assumed to be minor. To fill this knowledge gap, this paper reports on observations of a selected network of reliable hobby meteorologists, including several in The Hague and Rotterdam. A number of alternative measures were also used to quantify UHI, i.e., the generalized extreme value distribution and return periods of UHI and adverse human comfort; its uncertainties were estimated by the statistical method of bootstrapping. It appeared essential to distinguish observations made at roof level from those made within the urban canyon, since the latter related more closely to exposure at pedestrian level and to urban canyon properties in their close neighborhood. The results show that most Dutch cities experience a substantial UHI, i.e., a mean daily maximum UHI of 2.3 K and a 95 percentile of 5.3 K, and that all cities experience a shadow effect in the morning when cities remain cooler than the rural surroundings. Also, an evident relation between the median of the daily maximum UHI and its 95 percentile was discovered. Furthermore, the 95 percentile of the UHI appears well correlated with population density. In addition, we find a significant decrease of UHI and the percentage of surface area covered by green vegetation, but the relation with open water remains unclear.

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Many cities have expanded during the 20th century, and consequently some weather stations are currently located closer to cities than before. Due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, those weather stations may show a positive bias in their 2-m temperature record. In this study, we estimate the impact of urbanization on the temperature record of WMO station De Bilt (The Netherlands). This station has a long historical record, but the nearby city of Utrecht and its suburbs expanded during the 20th century. The temperature rise due to urbanization is estimated by conducting representative mesoscale model simulations for the land-use situation for the years 1900 and 2000. This is performed for 14 different episodes of a week, each representing a typical large-scale flow regime (Grosswettertypes) in both the winter and the summer season. Frequency distributions of these flow regimes are used to estimate an average temperature rise. We find that the model results with two rather different atmospheric boundary-layer schemes, robustly indicate that the urbanization during the 20th century has resulted in a temperature rise of 0.22 ± 0.06 K. This is more than a factor of 2 higher than a previously estimated temperature trend by using observed temperature records of stations close to De Bilt.

In the Netherlands, there will be an urgent need for additional housing by the year 2040, which mainly has to be realized within the existing built environment rather than in the spatial extension of cities. In this data-driven study, we investigated the effects of different urban planning strategies on heat stress for the current climate and future climate scenarios (year 2050) for the urban agglomeration of The Hague. Heat stress is here expressed as the number of days exceeding minimum temperatures of 20 °C in a year. Thereto, we applied a diagnostic equation to determine the daily maximum urban heat island based on routine meteorological observations and straightforward urban morphological properties including the sky-view factor and the vegetation fraction. Moreover, we utilized the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute’s (KNMI) climate scenarios to transform present-day meteorological hourly time series into the future time series. The urban planning strategies differ in replacing low- and mid-rise buildings with high-rise buildings (which reduces the sky-view factor), and constructing buildings on green areas (which reduces the vegetation fraction). We found that, in most cases, the vegetation fraction is a more critical parameter than the sky-view factor to minimize the extra heat stress incurred when densifying the neighbourhood. This means that an urban planning strategy consisting of high-rise buildings and preserved green areas is often the best solution. Still, climate change will have a larger impact on heat stress for the year 2050 than the imposed urban densification.