On the road to excellence, it is essential to develop resilience, that is, to be able to positively adapt within the context of significant adversity. Researchers tend to agree that resilience is a complex process with a multitude of underlying variables. To stimulate research on the process of resilience, we propose the dynamical system approach that provides a theoretical perspective on mapping out and understanding how resilience unfolds over time. Furthermore, we will demonstrate how the findings of previous research on resilience in sports fit with several dynamical properties, including complexity, iterativity, and the formation of attractor states. New findings on the dynamic properties of resilience will result in in-depth knowledge about, and understanding of, the process of how individuals adapt to adverse events. Practitioners might benefit from this approach by being able to detect early warning signals of critical transitions (e.g., critical slowing down) and take preventive actions before breakdowns in performance occur.
Talent identification research in soccer comprises the prediction of elite soccer performance. While many studies in this field have aimed to empirically relate performance characteristics to subsequent soccer success, a critical evaluation of the methodology of these studies has mostly been absent in the literature. In this position paper, we discuss advantages and limitations of the design, validity, and utility of current soccer talent identification research. Specifically, we draw on principles from selection psychology that can contribute to best practices in the context of making selection decisions across domains. Based on an extensive search of the soccer literature, we identify four methodological issues from this framework that are relevant for talent identification research, i.e. (1) the operationalization of criterion variables (the performance to be predicted) as performance levels; (2) the focus on isolated performance indicators as predictors of soccer performance; (3) the effects of range restriction on the predictive validity of predictors used in talent identification; and (4) the effect of the base rate on the utility of talent identification procedures. Based on these four issues, we highlight opportunities and challenges for future soccer talent identification studies that may contribute to developing evidence-based selection procedures. We suggest for future research to consider the use of individual soccer criterion measures, to adopt representative, high-fidelity predictors of soccer performance, and to take restriction of range and the base rate into account.
The selection of athletes has been a central topic in sports sciences for decades. Yet, little consideration has been given to the theoretical underpinnings and predictive validity of the procedures. In this paper, we evaluate current selection procedures in sports given what we know from the selection psychology literature. We contrast the popular clinical method (predictions based on overall impressions of experts) with the actuarial approach (predictions based on pre-defined decision rules), and we discuss why the latter approach often leads to superior performance predictions. Furthermore, we discuss the "signs" and the "samples" approaches. Taking the prevailing signs approach, athletes' technical-, tactical-, physical-, and psychological skills are often assessed separately in controlled settings. However, for predicting later sport performance, taking samples of athletes' behaviours in their sports environment may result in more valid assessments. We discuss the possible advantages and implications of making selection procedures in sports more actuarial and sample-based.
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